Last night the Yankees agreed to send Jesus Montero along with Hector Noesi to the Mariners for Michael Pineda and Jose Campos. As a Yankee fan, I must admit to being a bit surprised by this transaction since I figured we would finally get a full season of Montero in pinstripes, but looking at this trade on a long-term basis things seem to make sense for both sides.
The Mariners currently have a wealth of young starting pitchers with both Danny Hultzen and James Paxton expected to be added to the rotation by 2013 as well as 19 year old prospect Tijuan Walker arguably having the most upside among all pitchers currently in the low minors. Combine this with the pitching friendly confines of Safeco Field and one can see this franchise being able to replenish its pitching staff easier than others.
Pineda has all the makings to be a consistent ace, but his age and late season struggles do point to some drawbacks. In his rookie year last season, Pineda came out strong overpowering hitters with his fastball command that could reach into the high 90’s (his four-seam fastball had the average velocity of 94.6) as well as a wipe-out slider that generated a high whiff rate against opposing hitters from both sides of the plate. His one major weakness has been his lack of a legitimate change-up. This could prove troublesome especially for a pitcher with such an extreme home-road split who now must learn to overpower opposing left-handed hitters in a park that is generous to power from that side. Utilizing an effective change-up will help, but he has been effective with his slider which produced a 32.4 percent whiff rate as well as a groundball rate above fifty percent from lefties last season.
The trouble for the M’s have been offense and with issues at DH and Justin Smoak performing less than expected – the addition of Montero will give this team some offensive upside for 2012 and beyond.
Montero does project as an above average hitter, but with his positional limitations as well as being a right-handed hitter now playing half his games in Safeco, his value could be dicey. For the Mariners to get the maximum amount in this deal, it’s imperative they take a long look at him as a catcher in 2012. If that turns out to be a failure, the team still has first base to fall back on – assuming that Smoak is no longer an everyday player (which could be unfair still given his age, power potential and manageable strikeout rate).
The Yankees have been quiet this offseason leading many to believe that the team’s announcement to reduce payroll over the next few seasons could be a legitimate goal. Looking beyond 2012, the Yankees have a lot of money tied up in aging veterans and if the Yankees truly saw Montero as nothing more than a DH/occasional 1B he could be difficult to roster over the next few seasons as players like Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter creep closer to age 40.
Using a piece like Jesus Montero while his trade value remains high for Michael Pineda keeps their former clubs from overpaying for these needs this offseason. The Mariners have flirted with the idea of buying into the services of Prince Fielder, but his hefty price tag and long-term commitment could be troublesome down the road. This point is further heightened as other teams in its division such as the Angels and Rangers operate with higher revenues.
On the flip side, the Yankees need quality starters to balance out its rotation, but the premium price placed on All-Star pitching would either continue to drive their payroll abnormally high or cost them quality prospects (something the Yanks were made aware of in its pursuit of Gio Gonzalez last month). These options are untenable for a team looking to get leaner while still staying competitive in 2014
Like the Delmon Young for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett swap in 2007, this trade will be fiercely debated on both sides and it will be interesting to see how things end up in a few years.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Week 10 NFL picks
Coming in a bit late, here are my weekly picks to win straight-up based on my confidence level of 1-16, with 16 being the highest:
Raiders at Chargers: I bit it on this one. I figured the Chargers would have the upper hand at home and were a near lock to break their losing streak. I failed, however, to account for teh Raiders defense and the Chargers horrible run defense. I picked the Chargers with a confidence level of 14.
Lions at Bears: tough one, I took the Bears with a confidence level of 6 based on how well Chicago's offensive line has been playing of late.
Jaguars at Colts: Jacksonville has an excellent defense and should find a way to score against the Colts. Jaguars with a con level of 15.
Broncos at Chiefs: I figure the KC had all week to figure out how to slow down Denver's option. The Chiefs do have a sufficient run defense and should find a way to squaek a win at home. KC with a con level of 2.
Steelers at Bengals: Tough game and I'm still on the Cincy bandwagon. The Bengals with a con level of 1.
Bills at Cowboys: The Bills have too many holes and their offensive should hit another wall in what I think is still a good Dallas defense. The Cowboys with a con level of 11.
Saints at Falcons: This game is a coin-flip. I'm going with Atlanta at home with a con level of 3.
Rams at Browns: Cleveland's defense should give them the edge. Browns with a con level of 8.
Redskins at Dolphins: I think Shanahan is still going to press his players enough to get this win. The Redskins still have a good pass defense and should bring Matt Moore back down to earth. Skins with a con level of 4.
Texans at Buccaneers: Houston is for real. I like the defense and their offensive line has been solid. The Bucs can be tough at home but I'm still giving the edge to Houston, con level of 10.
Titans at Panthers: two horrible defenses going up against each other, but I'm giving teh edge to the Panthers offense. Carolina with a con level of 5.
Cardinals at Eagles: Despite which Philadelphia team shows up I still think it'll be enough to beat the Cards. Eagles with a con level of 16.
Ravens at Seahawks: No, I don't think the Ravens offense has turned a corner but their defense should be enough to make them victorious. Ravens with a con level of 9.
Giants at 49ers: This was tough and I'm probably not giving the Giants enough credit. What can I say? I love the 49ers this season. SF with a con level of 12.
Patriots at Jets: Amazing what two weeks can do. I'm officially a Jets believer. At home, I'm taking NYJ with a con level of 7.
Vikings at Packers: This should be a high-scoring affair, but the rivalry should be enough to keep the Packers from napping. I'm going with Green Bay with a con level of 13. Total score (as tiebreaker) is set at 56.
Raiders at Chargers: I bit it on this one. I figured the Chargers would have the upper hand at home and were a near lock to break their losing streak. I failed, however, to account for teh Raiders defense and the Chargers horrible run defense. I picked the Chargers with a confidence level of 14.
Lions at Bears: tough one, I took the Bears with a confidence level of 6 based on how well Chicago's offensive line has been playing of late.
Jaguars at Colts: Jacksonville has an excellent defense and should find a way to score against the Colts. Jaguars with a con level of 15.
Broncos at Chiefs: I figure the KC had all week to figure out how to slow down Denver's option. The Chiefs do have a sufficient run defense and should find a way to squaek a win at home. KC with a con level of 2.
Steelers at Bengals: Tough game and I'm still on the Cincy bandwagon. The Bengals with a con level of 1.
Bills at Cowboys: The Bills have too many holes and their offensive should hit another wall in what I think is still a good Dallas defense. The Cowboys with a con level of 11.
Saints at Falcons: This game is a coin-flip. I'm going with Atlanta at home with a con level of 3.
Rams at Browns: Cleveland's defense should give them the edge. Browns with a con level of 8.
Redskins at Dolphins: I think Shanahan is still going to press his players enough to get this win. The Redskins still have a good pass defense and should bring Matt Moore back down to earth. Skins with a con level of 4.
Texans at Buccaneers: Houston is for real. I like the defense and their offensive line has been solid. The Bucs can be tough at home but I'm still giving the edge to Houston, con level of 10.
Titans at Panthers: two horrible defenses going up against each other, but I'm giving teh edge to the Panthers offense. Carolina with a con level of 5.
Cardinals at Eagles: Despite which Philadelphia team shows up I still think it'll be enough to beat the Cards. Eagles with a con level of 16.
Ravens at Seahawks: No, I don't think the Ravens offense has turned a corner but their defense should be enough to make them victorious. Ravens with a con level of 9.
Giants at 49ers: This was tough and I'm probably not giving the Giants enough credit. What can I say? I love the 49ers this season. SF with a con level of 12.
Patriots at Jets: Amazing what two weeks can do. I'm officially a Jets believer. At home, I'm taking NYJ with a con level of 7.
Vikings at Packers: This should be a high-scoring affair, but the rivalry should be enough to keep the Packers from napping. I'm going with Green Bay with a con level of 13. Total score (as tiebreaker) is set at 56.
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Week 9 NFL picks
Since this is my first post on the matter, let me explain: currently I am knee-deep in a football pool with some friends who work at Antigua. Nothing special, the buy-in is a mere $10 per week and you are then given an excel spreadsheet to fill out before the Thursday evening deadline.
I haven't shared my previous picks, but I thought I would start here with week 9 and quickly jot down my reasons why.
Here are the rules. You are given a sheet listing each matchup with home teams on the right-hand column and visitors on the left. Simply mark an X next to the box of the team you think will win (no point spreads, everything is straight up) and signify your confidence with each pick by placing a number from 1-14 (sometimes 16, depending if it's early in the season and no bye weeks are given out).
The higher the number, the more confident you are and the person with the most points wins the buy-ins... in case of a tie, each person must record the total score for the Monday Night game. Hopefully the people who are tied gave different scores, if not - the money is shared.
I haven't shared my previous picks, but I thought I would start here with week 9 and quickly jot down my reasons why.
Here are the rules. You are given a sheet listing each matchup with home teams on the right-hand column and visitors on the left. Simply mark an X next to the box of the team you think will win (no point spreads, everything is straight up) and signify your confidence with each pick by placing a number from 1-14 (sometimes 16, depending if it's early in the season and no bye weeks are given out).
The higher the number, the more confident you are and the person with the most points wins the buy-ins... in case of a tie, each person must record the total score for the Monday Night game. Hopefully the people who are tied gave different scores, if not - the money is shared.
Saturday, October 22, 2011
AFL notes: 10/21/11 (Scottsdale at Surprise)
| Scottsdale | Surprise | ||
| Gary Brown (SF) | CF | CF | Kevin Mattison (FLA) |
| Jean Segura (LAA) | SS | SS | Leury Garcia (TEX) |
| Will Middlebrooks (BOS) | 3B | DH | Wil Myers (KC) |
| Bryce Harper (WAS) | LF | 3B | Mike Olt (TEX) |
| Alex Hanssan (BOS) | DH | 1B | Joe Terdoslavich (ATL) |
| Cody Overbeck (PHI) | 1B | C | Kyle Skipworth (FLA) |
| Joe Panik (SF) | 2B | LF | Todd Cunningham (ATL) |
| Dan Butler (BOS) | C | RF | Ryan Strausborger (TEX) |
| Tyson Gillies (PHI) | RF | 2B | Tyler Bortnick (TBR) |
| Matt Purke (WAS) | LHP | RHP | Shane Dyer (TBR) |
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Arizona Fall League notes
With some free time my plan is to catch a few extra AFL games this season. I'm hoping to catch every team and try to throw out some amateur (very amateur, mind you) scouting reports as a way to record my initial thoughts and reactions on a few players. Please be advised.
To do this right, my objective is to sit directly behind home plate in an effort to eavesdrop on a few scouts... this will be difficult since many of them are spread out and tend to not loudly verbalize their notes (my loss). But my goal is to become friendly with a few within my earshot and possibly see what kind of relationship develops. (Not promising anything.)
On to the notes:
The game I attended was the October 18 game at the Peoria Sports Complex between the Peoria Javelinas hosting the Surprise Saguaros. Below is the starting lineup:
To do this right, my objective is to sit directly behind home plate in an effort to eavesdrop on a few scouts... this will be difficult since many of them are spread out and tend to not loudly verbalize their notes (my loss). But my goal is to become friendly with a few within my earshot and possibly see what kind of relationship develops. (Not promising anything.)
On to the notes:
The game I attended was the October 18 game at the Peoria Sports Complex between the Peoria Javelinas hosting the Surprise Saguaros. Below is the starting lineup:
| Surprise | Peoria J. | ||
| Kevin Mattison (FLA) | CF | CF | Logan Schafer (MIL) |
| Tim Beckham (TBR) | SS | SS | Nick Franklin (SEA) |
| Wil Myers (KC) | RF | 3B | Jedd Gyorko (SD) |
| Mike Olt (TEX) | 3B | 1B | Matt Adams (STL) |
| Matt Dominguez (FLA) | DH | DH | Ryan Jackson (STL) |
| Joe Terdoslavich (ATL) | 1B | LF | Jaff Decker (SD) |
| Mikie Mahtook (TBR) | LF | C | Adam Moore (SEA) |
| Kyle Skipworth (FLA) | C | RF | Chih-Hsien Chiang (SEA) |
| Leury Garcia (TEX) | 2B | 2B | Wilfred Tovar (NYM) |
| Miguel De Los Santos (TEX) | LHP | RHP | Anthony Bass (SD) |
Sunday, July 24, 2011
Notes on the 2011 MLB Trade Deadline: NL East edition
As expected, this is forming into a two-team race between the Phillies and the Braves with the latter expected to be named as the league's wild card. The Mets have installed a talented front office and should be competitive in the next few seasons but no one expected them to hover around .500. The Marlins are a mess and will be unpredictable while Jeffrey Loria is in charge. Meanwhile, in the nation's capital, I like to believe that GM Mike Rizzo has a plan since I do trust the direction they are heading.
NL East
Looking at BP's projections, both favorites in this division should easily crack 90 wins with the Phillies coming in at 96-97 and the Braves settling for 92-93.
NL East
Looking at BP's projections, both favorites in this division should easily crack 90 wins with the Phillies coming in at 96-97 and the Braves settling for 92-93.
| 2011 Payroll | 2012 FA's | 2012 Arbs. | |
| Phillies | $166 M | 8 | 7 |
| Braves | $91 M | 6 | 6 |
| Mets | $142.8 M | 9 | 5 |
| Marlins | $57.7 M | 5 | 11 |
| Nationals | $68 M | 10 | 7 |
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Notes on the 2011 MLB Trade Deadline: NL Central edition
Looking over the NL Central things are looking rather interesting at the top of the standings. So far, with one week of games played in the second half, we have a mere four and a half games that separate the Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds.
Obviously, the Pirates are a huge surprise and have played .500 baseball since the first few weeks of June. Many expected them to fade away but they have gained ground and briefly had their time in first place as recently as July 19th.
NL CENTRAL
Going over the playoff odds report at Baseball Prospectus, the Brewers are the favorite but it should be very, very close as it could take as few as 87 wins to wrap up this division.
Obviously, the Pirates are a huge surprise and have played .500 baseball since the first few weeks of June. Many expected them to fade away but they have gained ground and briefly had their time in first place as recently as July 19th.
NL CENTRAL
Going over the playoff odds report at Baseball Prospectus, the Brewers are the favorite but it should be very, very close as it could take as few as 87 wins to wrap up this division.
| 2011 Payroll | 2012 FA's | 2012 Arbs. | |
| Brewers | $83.5 M | 6 | 9 |
| Pirates | $42 M | 6 | 12 |
| Cardinals | $109 M | 8 | 6 |
| Reds | $80.8 M | 6 | 8 |
| Cubs | $134 M | 7 | 6 |
| Astros | $77 M | 2 | 7 |
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Notes on the 2011 MLB Trade Deadline: NL West edition
With this season's trade deadline set to expire at the end of July, most news coming out of the sport seems wrought with rumors, speculation and trade advice. Below is a quick rundown of all the divisions along with each team's probable status, names involved, measured opinions by author, etc.
*note: all stats and team standings were taken prior to July 20, 2011
NL WEST:
According to the playoff odds report at Baseball Prospectus, the Giants are expected to easily win the division with 93 expected wins while the DBacks (82.2) and Rockies (80.1) fighting it out for a distant second. Recently, the Giants have won eight out of ten and sit on top of the division with a, somewhat, comfortable 4 1/2 game lead over the DBacks. The Rockies are still struggling to play .500 ball and are 10 1/2 behind.
Below is a quick breakdown of each team's 2011 payroll and the number of free agents (club options were included) and arbitration eligibles in 2012:
*note: all stats and team standings were taken prior to July 20, 2011
NL WEST:
According to the playoff odds report at Baseball Prospectus, the Giants are expected to easily win the division with 93 expected wins while the DBacks (82.2) and Rockies (80.1) fighting it out for a distant second. Recently, the Giants have won eight out of ten and sit on top of the division with a, somewhat, comfortable 4 1/2 game lead over the DBacks. The Rockies are still struggling to play .500 ball and are 10 1/2 behind.
Below is a quick breakdown of each team's 2011 payroll and the number of free agents (club options were included) and arbitration eligibles in 2012:
| 2011 Payroll | 2012 FA's | 2012 Arbs. | |
| Giants | $118.2 M | 7 | 12 |
| Dbacks | $56.5 M | 4 | 5 |
| Rockies | $82.3 M | 3 | 4 |
| Dodgers | $119.7 M | 12 | 6 |
| Padres | $45.8 M | 4 | 14 |
Monday, July 18, 2011
2011 NFL Team Preview: the Raiders of Oakland
In an effort to expand this blog to cover all major American sports, I will periodically turn my attention to the NFL to break down a handful of teams possibly due for a breakout this upcoming season. With talks between the league and the players association looking optimistic - my goal is to have this done sometime before the end of August. This first entry will look at the Oakland Raiders.
If all goes to according to plan,this will be the first of a five-part series. Next season, folks.
********
Last season the Raiders finished with a record of 8-8 including an impressive 6-0 within their division. Despite playing in the AFC West, this showing wasn’t enough to garner them a playoff spot but there were some positives compared to previous seasons. According to projections published in the previous Football Outsiders Almanac, the Raiders were expected to be no better than a 4 to 5 win team. Standard observation considering the fact that many questions and doubts lingered throughout almost every major position on the team; so, what caused them to perform much better than expected?
Offense
In 2009, the Raiders under first-time head coach Tom Cable turned in an offense that ranked almost last in total DVOA at -22.3%. In his second season, Cable decided to do things a bit differently. After struggling with injuries and under-performance from many key young players, the plan became to simplify this offensive unit with the signing of perpetual quarterback project, Jason Campbell, as well as bringing in first-time offensive coordinator Hue Jackson.
If all goes to according to plan,
********
Last season the Raiders finished with a record of 8-8 including an impressive 6-0 within their division. Despite playing in the AFC West, this showing wasn’t enough to garner them a playoff spot but there were some positives compared to previous seasons. According to projections published in the previous Football Outsiders Almanac, the Raiders were expected to be no better than a 4 to 5 win team. Standard observation considering the fact that many questions and doubts lingered throughout almost every major position on the team; so, what caused them to perform much better than expected?
Offense
In 2009, the Raiders under first-time head coach Tom Cable turned in an offense that ranked almost last in total DVOA at -22.3%. In his second season, Cable decided to do things a bit differently. After struggling with injuries and under-performance from many key young players, the plan became to simplify this offensive unit with the signing of perpetual quarterback project, Jason Campbell, as well as bringing in first-time offensive coordinator Hue Jackson.
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
2011 MLB Draft, day 2: rounds 2-30
In my opinion, the top five surprises from yesterday were:
1. Mariners skipping a bat and drafting Danny Hultzen 2nd overall.
2. Josh Bell fails to be drafted in day one (maybe Conor Glassey was right in his tweet regarding Bell's family and their comm. to education).
3. Dbacks going all-in and taking Archie Bradley at number 7 (very bold move and could be a good one).
4. The Mets taking a chance on Brandon Nimmo (only a surprise since everyone figured they were locked in on college pitching).
5. The Royals skipping their favorite bat in Anthony Rendon and taking Bubba Starling.
Other than that, nothing else was too surprising. Daniel Norris not being drafted could qualify but I've heard that his delivery needs some cleaning and his bonus demands are reported to be high. I guess I could say that I'm surprised the Yankees at number 51 didn't take a flyer out on him (or on Dillon Howard, for that matter).
1. Mariners skipping a bat and drafting Danny Hultzen 2nd overall.
2. Josh Bell fails to be drafted in day one (maybe Conor Glassey was right in his tweet regarding Bell's family and their comm. to education).
3. Dbacks going all-in and taking Archie Bradley at number 7 (very bold move and could be a good one).
4. The Mets taking a chance on Brandon Nimmo (only a surprise since everyone figured they were locked in on college pitching).
5. The Royals skipping their favorite bat in Anthony Rendon and taking Bubba Starling.
Other than that, nothing else was too surprising. Daniel Norris not being drafted could qualify but I've heard that his delivery needs some cleaning and his bonus demands are reported to be high. I guess I could say that I'm surprised the Yankees at number 51 didn't take a flyer out on him (or on Dillon Howard, for that matter).
Monday, June 6, 2011
Final few hours before the 2011 MLB draft: the Cole v. Rendon debate
According to Mayo, Pirates have finally made their decision regarding their top pick this draft (spoiler alert: Gerrit Cole will be called upon).
Arguments are flooding in against this selection - it's a viable argument but in a draft where the two top positional players have serious questions about health and projection and where a large number of potential aces or solid mid-rotation arms can be scooped up, nothing stands out as "can't miss" in this year's first-player draft.
I'm not going to defend or criticize the Pirates selection since Cole has shown first-round capabilities both out of high school and as a junior in college. Cole has maintained his development as a potential major league pitcher and now it seems it's up to the Pirates development and health for him to fully succeed. The former will be something the team can control. I'm sure, depending on how quickly he signs, Cole could report to High-A Bradenton or he/they could elect to skip this summer and let him debut for about 40 innings in the Arizona Fall League.
Health is another matter for Cole and I haven't come across any reports declaring mechanical issues that would need to be cleaned up. So, depending on the amount of innings and pitches Cole has thrown for UCLA the past few seasons it may be prudent for them shut him down until spring of 2012 - but nothing, in terms of overall health, is ever guaranteed.
According to a recent Fangraphs article by Dave Cameron, Cole has the highest ERA, HR's allowed, and opp. batting average on the 2011 Bruins team and, along with the shoddy track record of pitchers taken first overall, this could be a formula for disaster. As further stated by Cameron, Cole's BABIP was high but with the engineering surrounding college bats (even the new and "approved" BBCOR bats) BABIP still has the potential to flucuate based on a.) small sample of innings (114 IP, which Cameron acknowledges) and b.) traditionally, college defenses are subpar and c.) even with the newly sanctioned BBCOR bats, the "sweet spot" has been dramatically reduced along with the removal of its "trampoline/bounce effect" but metal bats still don't break and this can reduce other possibilities of weak contact when a wooden bat breaks or shatters.
Like Quarterbacks being draft first in the NFL (or early in the first round) a lot of risk is always involved and money, esp. with football, regarding all pitchers but I still don't see Anthony Rendon with his questionable size and questionable health as being amunition for an agrument against the selection of Cole as first - even the next best positional prospect, Bubba Starling, has a lot of talent but just as many question marks since he is so raw.
If Rendon was healthy or if he agreed to release his medical report showing exactly what is ailing his shoulder then (based on this med. report being positive) I would argue that selecting the lesser of two evils (amatuer bat over amatuer pitcher) would be wise.
Until then, this draft is loaded with too many question marks on both ends and no clear conclusion regarding the Cole v. Rendon camp can or should be made until next season.
Arguments are flooding in against this selection - it's a viable argument but in a draft where the two top positional players have serious questions about health and projection and where a large number of potential aces or solid mid-rotation arms can be scooped up, nothing stands out as "can't miss" in this year's first-player draft.
I'm not going to defend or criticize the Pirates selection since Cole has shown first-round capabilities both out of high school and as a junior in college. Cole has maintained his development as a potential major league pitcher and now it seems it's up to the Pirates development and health for him to fully succeed. The former will be something the team can control. I'm sure, depending on how quickly he signs, Cole could report to High-A Bradenton or he/they could elect to skip this summer and let him debut for about 40 innings in the Arizona Fall League.
Health is another matter for Cole and I haven't come across any reports declaring mechanical issues that would need to be cleaned up. So, depending on the amount of innings and pitches Cole has thrown for UCLA the past few seasons it may be prudent for them shut him down until spring of 2012 - but nothing, in terms of overall health, is ever guaranteed.
According to a recent Fangraphs article by Dave Cameron, Cole has the highest ERA, HR's allowed, and opp. batting average on the 2011 Bruins team and, along with the shoddy track record of pitchers taken first overall, this could be a formula for disaster. As further stated by Cameron, Cole's BABIP was high but with the engineering surrounding college bats (even the new and "approved" BBCOR bats) BABIP still has the potential to flucuate based on a.) small sample of innings (114 IP, which Cameron acknowledges) and b.) traditionally, college defenses are subpar and c.) even with the newly sanctioned BBCOR bats, the "sweet spot" has been dramatically reduced along with the removal of its "trampoline/bounce effect" but metal bats still don't break and this can reduce other possibilities of weak contact when a wooden bat breaks or shatters.
Like Quarterbacks being draft first in the NFL (or early in the first round) a lot of risk is always involved and money, esp. with football, regarding all pitchers but I still don't see Anthony Rendon with his questionable size and questionable health as being amunition for an agrument against the selection of Cole as first - even the next best positional prospect, Bubba Starling, has a lot of talent but just as many question marks since he is so raw.
If Rendon was healthy or if he agreed to release his medical report showing exactly what is ailing his shoulder then (based on this med. report being positive) I would argue that selecting the lesser of two evils (amatuer bat over amatuer pitcher) would be wise.
Until then, this draft is loaded with too many question marks on both ends and no clear conclusion regarding the Cole v. Rendon camp can or should be made until next season.
Thursday, December 9, 2010
2010 Winter Meetings: Day Three Aftermath
After watching day three unfold at a snail's pace, the Red Sox delivered a minor shocker last night by announcing the signing of Carl Crawford for seven years at $142M.
The timing and years of this deal are surprising. Many figured that Crawford wouldn't sign or be approached with a deal to his liking until after the meetings and with Jayson Werth signing a few days earlier for the same number years most figured Crawford would be a lock for eight to possibly ten years!
With the Yankees locked in on acquiring Cliff Lee it seems as though Boston only had to compete with the Los Angeles Angels for Crawford's services and with the playing narrowed quite substantially, it makes sense that the Sox could acquire a player of this age and caliber and still ward off any further risk that could occur if this contract was extended to 2018 and beyond.
****
The Crawford signing was good news to the Lee camp since it made the Yankees blink as they've upped their offer to seven years for Cliff Lee. It's probable that this deal could look like an anchor in a few seasons but on the bright side for us Yankee fans: signing Lee should allow us to keep Jesus Montero since our necessity to trade for a top-end starter seems to have gone down a bit.
The status of Andy Pettite is still unknown and with the Sox adding another potent left-handed hitter to their mix makes the Yanks need Lee all the more. Before the Crawford deal, the Yankees were standing firm on six years for Cliff Lee despite mentions of a "mystery" team contacted Lee's agent with a seven year offer. During yesterday's proceedings, it was reported that GM Brian Cashman received a phone call from Pettite but no decision has been made about his return. Even with Lee in the fold, Pettite would find room in the Yanks 2011 rotation but with a lot of money tied up to pitchers past '11 (assuming Lee signs), the Yankees will have to make some big decisions with what to do with their three pitching prospects (Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, and Andrew Brackman) since the the team is hoping that all three will be MLB ready by 2012.
****
Yesterday, some minor moves were made as the Mariners signed Jack Cust for one season. The Royals grabbed Jeff Francoeur for a single season with a mutual option; both players figure to share platoon time with their respective teammates.
The Padres picked up a SS by trading for Jason Bartlett and sending over a few interesting relievers back to Tampa Bay in the process. One of those relievers, Cesar Ramos did struggle a bit with command last season but he is effective in inducing groundballs and could be an upgrade over LOOGY incumbent Randy Choate.
****
Later today, teams will partake in the annual Rule 5 draft; expect the occasional speedy outfielder along with the handful of left-handed bullpen arms to be coveted. It will, however, be interesting to see if last season's analyst favorite, Aneury Rodriguez from the Rays, gets picked up.
The timing and years of this deal are surprising. Many figured that Crawford wouldn't sign or be approached with a deal to his liking until after the meetings and with Jayson Werth signing a few days earlier for the same number years most figured Crawford would be a lock for eight to possibly ten years!
With the Yankees locked in on acquiring Cliff Lee it seems as though Boston only had to compete with the Los Angeles Angels for Crawford's services and with the playing narrowed quite substantially, it makes sense that the Sox could acquire a player of this age and caliber and still ward off any further risk that could occur if this contract was extended to 2018 and beyond.
****
The Crawford signing was good news to the Lee camp since it made the Yankees blink as they've upped their offer to seven years for Cliff Lee. It's probable that this deal could look like an anchor in a few seasons but on the bright side for us Yankee fans: signing Lee should allow us to keep Jesus Montero since our necessity to trade for a top-end starter seems to have gone down a bit.
The status of Andy Pettite is still unknown and with the Sox adding another potent left-handed hitter to their mix makes the Yanks need Lee all the more. Before the Crawford deal, the Yankees were standing firm on six years for Cliff Lee despite mentions of a "mystery" team contacted Lee's agent with a seven year offer. During yesterday's proceedings, it was reported that GM Brian Cashman received a phone call from Pettite but no decision has been made about his return. Even with Lee in the fold, Pettite would find room in the Yanks 2011 rotation but with a lot of money tied up to pitchers past '11 (assuming Lee signs), the Yankees will have to make some big decisions with what to do with their three pitching prospects (Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, and Andrew Brackman) since the the team is hoping that all three will be MLB ready by 2012.
****
Yesterday, some minor moves were made as the Mariners signed Jack Cust for one season. The Royals grabbed Jeff Francoeur for a single season with a mutual option; both players figure to share platoon time with their respective teammates.
The Padres picked up a SS by trading for Jason Bartlett and sending over a few interesting relievers back to Tampa Bay in the process. One of those relievers, Cesar Ramos did struggle a bit with command last season but he is effective in inducing groundballs and could be an upgrade over LOOGY incumbent Randy Choate.
****
Later today, teams will partake in the annual Rule 5 draft; expect the occasional speedy outfielder along with the handful of left-handed bullpen arms to be coveted. It will, however, be interesting to see if last season's analyst favorite, Aneury Rodriguez from the Rays, gets picked up.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
2010 Winter Meetings: Early Day Three notes
Judging by MLB Network's constant loop of yesterday's news, it's safe to assume that much hasn't occured since reports came out about a "mystery team" offering Cliff Lee seven years (I think I've watched the Kevin Towers interview four times now...)
****
Day Two Officialisms:
Ty Wigginton brings his shoddy glove and middling power to Colorado as their right-handed counterpart to Todd Helton at 1B for two years at $8M. Looking over his 2010 stats, I'm a bit surprised that Wigginton logged in over 300 innings as a second baseman! Obviously, he didn't do it well but I guess Brian Roberts injury last season put the O's into true desperation mode.
The Mets grabbed D.J. Carrasco for two years at a little over a million per. I'm surprised the Dbacks didn't elect to try and bring DJ back since he was one of the few Dbacks not burned by the long ball. He was eligible for arbitration this offseason and Dbacks GM, Kevin Towers, did admit to keeping Carrasco on their "radar screens" after he was released. I'm guessing that the sudden rise in player salaries this winter may have put a wrench in their plans to re-sign him for a lower rate.
Joel Sherman has reported via twitter that the Yankees have received the medical information on Russell Martin. However, no deal has been reached but this should be interesting in terms of how the Yankees are looking towards assembling their team of catchers in 2011. The Red Sox are also interested in Martin's services as their catching situation may also get a bit crowded with Jarrod Saltalamacchia on the roster and the recent re-signing of Jason Varitek. The Mets have also shown considerable interest but that has cooled since they signed Ronny Paulino to one season.
The extent of Martin's late season hip injury will be examined. If signed, Martin won't come at a bargain rate; the Dodgers did make an offer around $4+M with added incentives. It's been reported that Martin wants at least $5.5M next season and if signed by the Yankees or Red Sox then decisions will have to be made regarding their catching depth since both Salty and the Yanks Francisco Cervelli project as the odd men out.
Trades talks are heating up for Zack Greinke, some sources are saying that Toronto is on his no-trade list but recent reports have come out that he would be willing to waive this clause to help KC get the best offer. So far, their camp seems to be waiting on what Cliff Lee decides to do regarding the Rangers.
****
This morning it became official that Paul Konerko will stay with the White Sox when a deal engineered by Jerry Reinsdorf was reached at three years/$37M. Watch as the Sox's current logjam at first basemen plays out next season, Dunn probably came to Chicago at least with an understanding that Konerko could return - both rated poor defensively last season and it will be interesting to see who gets the main share of DH-ing duty.
Based on how the market's been heading, I was surprised to see Carlos Pena settle for a one year deal at $10M. Sure his production was down last season but in a market that gave Ty Wigginton two guaranteed years was this strategy worth it? Assuming he bounces back, he will have plenty of competition in the market next season as Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols (again, assuming he doesn't reach a longterm deal) as a 1B free agent and he will be 34 years old... yikes!
Again, it looks like those pesky Nationals are still running around with their parent's checkbook. Recent reports have them courting Carl Pavano and looking into possibly trading for Zack Greinke or Matt Garza. The former, I guess, seems reasonable. Pavano won't break the bank since the going rate has been three years but looking at the Nationals interest in trading for either Garza or Greinke is confusing since it doesn't follow the logical path of a team still needing to build from within. Many analysts agree that the Nationals should be serious contenders in the two or three seasons and a lot of that success will depend on how other prospects not named Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper develop.
****
Day Two Officialisms:
Ty Wigginton brings his shoddy glove and middling power to Colorado as their right-handed counterpart to Todd Helton at 1B for two years at $8M. Looking over his 2010 stats, I'm a bit surprised that Wigginton logged in over 300 innings as a second baseman! Obviously, he didn't do it well but I guess Brian Roberts injury last season put the O's into true desperation mode.
The Mets grabbed D.J. Carrasco for two years at a little over a million per. I'm surprised the Dbacks didn't elect to try and bring DJ back since he was one of the few Dbacks not burned by the long ball. He was eligible for arbitration this offseason and Dbacks GM, Kevin Towers, did admit to keeping Carrasco on their "radar screens" after he was released. I'm guessing that the sudden rise in player salaries this winter may have put a wrench in their plans to re-sign him for a lower rate.
Joel Sherman has reported via twitter that the Yankees have received the medical information on Russell Martin. However, no deal has been reached but this should be interesting in terms of how the Yankees are looking towards assembling their team of catchers in 2011. The Red Sox are also interested in Martin's services as their catching situation may also get a bit crowded with Jarrod Saltalamacchia on the roster and the recent re-signing of Jason Varitek. The Mets have also shown considerable interest but that has cooled since they signed Ronny Paulino to one season.
The extent of Martin's late season hip injury will be examined. If signed, Martin won't come at a bargain rate; the Dodgers did make an offer around $4+M with added incentives. It's been reported that Martin wants at least $5.5M next season and if signed by the Yankees or Red Sox then decisions will have to be made regarding their catching depth since both Salty and the Yanks Francisco Cervelli project as the odd men out.
Trades talks are heating up for Zack Greinke, some sources are saying that Toronto is on his no-trade list but recent reports have come out that he would be willing to waive this clause to help KC get the best offer. So far, their camp seems to be waiting on what Cliff Lee decides to do regarding the Rangers.
****
This morning it became official that Paul Konerko will stay with the White Sox when a deal engineered by Jerry Reinsdorf was reached at three years/$37M. Watch as the Sox's current logjam at first basemen plays out next season, Dunn probably came to Chicago at least with an understanding that Konerko could return - both rated poor defensively last season and it will be interesting to see who gets the main share of DH-ing duty.
Based on how the market's been heading, I was surprised to see Carlos Pena settle for a one year deal at $10M. Sure his production was down last season but in a market that gave Ty Wigginton two guaranteed years was this strategy worth it? Assuming he bounces back, he will have plenty of competition in the market next season as Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols (again, assuming he doesn't reach a longterm deal) as a 1B free agent and he will be 34 years old... yikes!
Again, it looks like those pesky Nationals are still running around with their parent's checkbook. Recent reports have them courting Carl Pavano and looking into possibly trading for Zack Greinke or Matt Garza. The former, I guess, seems reasonable. Pavano won't break the bank since the going rate has been three years but looking at the Nationals interest in trading for either Garza or Greinke is confusing since it doesn't follow the logical path of a team still needing to build from within. Many analysts agree that the Nationals should be serious contenders in the two or three seasons and a lot of that success will depend on how other prospects not named Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper develop.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
2010 Winter Meetings: Early Day Two Notes
The Nationals still seem intent on pursuing Cliff Lee and will need to overpay (again) to give this rumor any credence but it's very tough to see Lee going to a non-contender at this stage of his career.
It will be interesting to see how serious the Yankees become with news that Andy Pettite possibly retiring and with the Red Sox acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez.
****
The Prince Fielder trade rumors have seemingly fired up again; the latest has the Dodgers as being serious suitors for the big man and have initiated talks by offering RHP Jonathan Broxton and 1B James Loney along with a possible marginal prospect.
I did like the acquisition of Shaun Marcum to help stabilize their rotation next season for the cost of a top prospect seemingly blocked by a group of young and effective positional players. For the Brewers to contend next season it's important that they add another pitcher in the backend who could be effective in eating up innings but if they trade Fielder then things could become tricky. Last season, the Brewers saw a resurgance in players like Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart which was necessary in giving them a quality all-around offense. It's become accepted that this will be Fielder's final season and with him not interested in signing a long-term deal until after the 2011 season, he becomes very diffiult to trade since he becomes nothing more than a one season rental.
I've always felt that the Brewers would be better served to keep Fielder as their cleanup hitter since no quality trade package could be expected. If Fielder stays and the Brewers find a few suitable pitchers (so far, one has been acquired) then it would serve this team both competitively and financially to prepare themselves to go deep into next season's playoffs. If they flip Fielder for James Loney and Jonathan Broxton, obviously their offense should take a noticeable hit since having a powerful left-handed bat is vital since this team tends to lean a bit far to the right.
Loney is a good linedrive hitter and is able to make consistent contact but his lack of power and average walk rate limits him. At best he projects as a quality #2 or #6 hitter.
Broxton is coming off a disappointing season and the Dodgers do seem eager to unload him. I think Broxton still has the stuff to close and would be a great addition on a number of teams but on the Brewers he would be more of a luxury than a necessity. Also, his status as a free agent after next season must be taken into account since he may not be too excited if expected to time share closing opportunites with John Axford.
More notes on the way...
It will be interesting to see how serious the Yankees become with news that Andy Pettite possibly retiring and with the Red Sox acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez.
****
The Prince Fielder trade rumors have seemingly fired up again; the latest has the Dodgers as being serious suitors for the big man and have initiated talks by offering RHP Jonathan Broxton and 1B James Loney along with a possible marginal prospect.
I did like the acquisition of Shaun Marcum to help stabilize their rotation next season for the cost of a top prospect seemingly blocked by a group of young and effective positional players. For the Brewers to contend next season it's important that they add another pitcher in the backend who could be effective in eating up innings but if they trade Fielder then things could become tricky. Last season, the Brewers saw a resurgance in players like Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart which was necessary in giving them a quality all-around offense. It's become accepted that this will be Fielder's final season and with him not interested in signing a long-term deal until after the 2011 season, he becomes very diffiult to trade since he becomes nothing more than a one season rental.
I've always felt that the Brewers would be better served to keep Fielder as their cleanup hitter since no quality trade package could be expected. If Fielder stays and the Brewers find a few suitable pitchers (so far, one has been acquired) then it would serve this team both competitively and financially to prepare themselves to go deep into next season's playoffs. If they flip Fielder for James Loney and Jonathan Broxton, obviously their offense should take a noticeable hit since having a powerful left-handed bat is vital since this team tends to lean a bit far to the right.
Loney is a good linedrive hitter and is able to make consistent contact but his lack of power and average walk rate limits him. At best he projects as a quality #2 or #6 hitter.
Broxton is coming off a disappointing season and the Dodgers do seem eager to unload him. I think Broxton still has the stuff to close and would be a great addition on a number of teams but on the Brewers he would be more of a luxury than a necessity. Also, his status as a free agent after next season must be taken into account since he may not be too excited if expected to time share closing opportunites with John Axford.
More notes on the way...
2010 Winter Meetings: Day One
Looking at a few transactions before the meetings officially began:
Red Sox traded RHP Casey Kelly, 1B Anthony Rizzo, OF Reymond Fuentes to the San Diego Padres for 1B Adrian Gonzalez. The deal became finalized when Gonzalez agreed to an extension of seven years at $154M. According to reports the contract is not set to kick in until the 2012 season.
Nationals signed Jayson Werth for seven years at $126M. Obviously the Nationals were forced to overpay for Werth's services and the timing was also a shock since it
Cardinals sign 34 year old Lance Berkman for one season at $8M. As it stands, Berkman will be patrolling LF and there will be questions as to how he will hold up defensively since he hasn't played the OF with any regularity since 2004. I still think there may be more to this acquisition and it may not fully manifest itself until after the meetings have concluded.
The Yankees tie up two major responsibilities by signing both Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera.
Other transactions that occurred as the meetings began:
RHP Aaron Harang and the Padres agreed to a one-year contract with a mutual option in 2012. Looking at Harang's abilities he should find himself improving in the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park and at $4M next season, this could be a steal.
The Blue Jays traded RHP Shaun Marcum to the Brewers for 2B prospect Brett Lawrie. Looking at his Double-A stats, Lawrie has above average power for a middle infielder. He will be set to start 2011 in the PCL and he could see his power numbers take another step forward but the Jays will be watching how other parts of his game develop including his plate discipline and defense. On the Brewers side, Marcum should be a good addition to their rotation since pitching depth is a major necessity and his move to the NL Central should bump up his value considerably. Marcum does have two more years left before he is eligible for free agency and will be heading for arbitration if a deal isn't reached for next season.
The Dbacks were active yesterday as they traded 3B Mark Reynolds to the Orioles for a couple of bullpen arms in Kam Mickolio and David Hernandez. Both Mickolio and Hernandez pitch from the right side and are major upgrades to a team that had major bullpen issues in 2010. In my SB Nation post, I did recommend Mickolio as a possible option the Dbacks should look into but I do feel the Dbacks did limit themselves in prematurely announcing their desire to trade Reynolds since I strongly feel the Dbacks sold low in this deal. Obviously Reynolds has his issues with strikeouts but his age and reasonable contract combined with someone with above average power and adequate defense could make the O's the winner in this deal. Last season Reynolds was crippled by a .193 batting average but his low BABIP does point to a probable bounce back up to his expected range around .250.
Later on the Dbacks announced they had come to an agreement with free agents Melvin Mora and J.J. Putz. Mora will be 39 next season and looks like a minor stop-gap since the deal was for only one season at $2M. Mora doesn't have the power he once had but he will do his part to reduce the team's strikeouts but he was below average with the glove and I don't see any reason why this should reverse itself. Putz is coming off his best season since 2007 and seems to be past the elbow issues that plauged him in '08 and '09. The Dbacks signed him for two years at $10M with the intention that he will be the closer.
Red Sox traded RHP Casey Kelly, 1B Anthony Rizzo, OF Reymond Fuentes to the San Diego Padres for 1B Adrian Gonzalez. The deal became finalized when Gonzalez agreed to an extension of seven years at $154M. According to reports the contract is not set to kick in until the 2012 season.
Nationals signed Jayson Werth for seven years at $126M. Obviously the Nationals were forced to overpay for Werth's services and the timing was also a shock since it
Cardinals sign 34 year old Lance Berkman for one season at $8M. As it stands, Berkman will be patrolling LF and there will be questions as to how he will hold up defensively since he hasn't played the OF with any regularity since 2004. I still think there may be more to this acquisition and it may not fully manifest itself until after the meetings have concluded.
The Yankees tie up two major responsibilities by signing both Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera.
Other transactions that occurred as the meetings began:
RHP Aaron Harang and the Padres agreed to a one-year contract with a mutual option in 2012. Looking at Harang's abilities he should find himself improving in the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park and at $4M next season, this could be a steal.
The Blue Jays traded RHP Shaun Marcum to the Brewers for 2B prospect Brett Lawrie. Looking at his Double-A stats, Lawrie has above average power for a middle infielder. He will be set to start 2011 in the PCL and he could see his power numbers take another step forward but the Jays will be watching how other parts of his game develop including his plate discipline and defense. On the Brewers side, Marcum should be a good addition to their rotation since pitching depth is a major necessity and his move to the NL Central should bump up his value considerably. Marcum does have two more years left before he is eligible for free agency and will be heading for arbitration if a deal isn't reached for next season.
The Dbacks were active yesterday as they traded 3B Mark Reynolds to the Orioles for a couple of bullpen arms in Kam Mickolio and David Hernandez. Both Mickolio and Hernandez pitch from the right side and are major upgrades to a team that had major bullpen issues in 2010. In my SB Nation post, I did recommend Mickolio as a possible option the Dbacks should look into but I do feel the Dbacks did limit themselves in prematurely announcing their desire to trade Reynolds since I strongly feel the Dbacks sold low in this deal. Obviously Reynolds has his issues with strikeouts but his age and reasonable contract combined with someone with above average power and adequate defense could make the O's the winner in this deal. Last season Reynolds was crippled by a .193 batting average but his low BABIP does point to a probable bounce back up to his expected range around .250.
Later on the Dbacks announced they had come to an agreement with free agents Melvin Mora and J.J. Putz. Mora will be 39 next season and looks like a minor stop-gap since the deal was for only one season at $2M. Mora doesn't have the power he once had but he will do his part to reduce the team's strikeouts but he was below average with the glove and I don't see any reason why this should reverse itself. Putz is coming off his best season since 2007 and seems to be past the elbow issues that plauged him in '08 and '09. The Dbacks signed him for two years at $10M with the intention that he will be the closer.
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Looking at the offseason and the problems of covering the postseason.
Since I'm still debating a name change for this site, I will direct readers to Part One of a possible three piece series I'm writing at the AZ Snakepit which speculates on a variety of directions Kevin Towers may go as GM of the D-backs.
The first part explores the D-backs bullpen, I'm hoping to have Part Two (which will look at their starting pitching staff) up in the next few days.
Also, I've been asked by the Hardball Times to help out with their postseason coverage. This is an incredible honor and one that challenges me since I've never really done postseason analysis before. Obviously, as a baseball fan I've always been quick to throw out an opinion here and there about each short series but I've never been one to search out articles beyond the occasional recap.
It's strange I am starting to notice more analysis about each given series but most of it treads on the same few themes:
1. Pointing out what mistakes the broadcasters are making: this is such a point of contention and one that is very easy to (justifiably) pick apart (Dave Cameron did this very well, recently, with his defense of Ryan Howard.)
2. How each manager handles or mishandles the team's bullpen and positional platoons.
3. Looking at announcements made regarding the formation of a team's pitching staff and batting order.
4. Shuffling through the stats after the fact - what went wrong in a single player's 20-26 at bats or 4-16 innings from a single starting pitcher.
These are basic approaches but very easy to do in a quick mash-up of 1500 words or less.
Ultimately there is an art here and many writers much better than myself have achieved it or come very close to capturing something much deeper than four simple points I've listed. The one thing that I have trouble coming to terms with is the idea of trying to apply intelligent statistical analysis to a series where too many variables seem to exist.
Recently, Jay Jaffe did a good job of coming to terms with the Yankees recent loss to the Rangers as a microcosm of what was wrong with the Yankees despite their 95 win season. It's laughable to many to watch a team win 95 games and still point out their flaws and limitations - but it's possible. The same day my article was released on THT, Steve Treder published a very fun piece about the 10 great What If's regarding the World Series. It's a great read and really looks at the what could have been if one or two little things went right. It also does nothing to settle the argument about why the best teams never face each other in the World Series... but can that "argument" ever be solved?
I guess the best thing I can do is try to look at these games individually and later see what can be discovered collectively. I will always be fascinated with how statistics measure how we objectively look at something - whether it be the span of an entire career or what we can expect in the future (be it the direction of a franchise or prospect) but that is different from looking at a span of 4 to 7 games.
I guess that's why I'll always remember one or two things about each series - whether it's Buckner's boot or Gibson's gimpy home run... I guess in a short series I have no choice but to have a short memory span. Anyway, tonight I'm going to immerse myself in basketball and then I'm going to look at each game of this upcoming World Series and see if I can share something new and insightful.
Enjoy the series.
The first part explores the D-backs bullpen, I'm hoping to have Part Two (which will look at their starting pitching staff) up in the next few days.
Also, I've been asked by the Hardball Times to help out with their postseason coverage. This is an incredible honor and one that challenges me since I've never really done postseason analysis before. Obviously, as a baseball fan I've always been quick to throw out an opinion here and there about each short series but I've never been one to search out articles beyond the occasional recap.
It's strange I am starting to notice more analysis about each given series but most of it treads on the same few themes:
1. Pointing out what mistakes the broadcasters are making: this is such a point of contention and one that is very easy to (justifiably) pick apart (Dave Cameron did this very well, recently, with his defense of Ryan Howard.)
2. How each manager handles or mishandles the team's bullpen and positional platoons.
3. Looking at announcements made regarding the formation of a team's pitching staff and batting order.
4. Shuffling through the stats after the fact - what went wrong in a single player's 20-26 at bats or 4-16 innings from a single starting pitcher.
These are basic approaches but very easy to do in a quick mash-up of 1500 words or less.
Ultimately there is an art here and many writers much better than myself have achieved it or come very close to capturing something much deeper than four simple points I've listed. The one thing that I have trouble coming to terms with is the idea of trying to apply intelligent statistical analysis to a series where too many variables seem to exist.
Recently, Jay Jaffe did a good job of coming to terms with the Yankees recent loss to the Rangers as a microcosm of what was wrong with the Yankees despite their 95 win season. It's laughable to many to watch a team win 95 games and still point out their flaws and limitations - but it's possible. The same day my article was released on THT, Steve Treder published a very fun piece about the 10 great What If's regarding the World Series. It's a great read and really looks at the what could have been if one or two little things went right. It also does nothing to settle the argument about why the best teams never face each other in the World Series... but can that "argument" ever be solved?
I guess the best thing I can do is try to look at these games individually and later see what can be discovered collectively. I will always be fascinated with how statistics measure how we objectively look at something - whether it be the span of an entire career or what we can expect in the future (be it the direction of a franchise or prospect) but that is different from looking at a span of 4 to 7 games.
I guess that's why I'll always remember one or two things about each series - whether it's Buckner's boot or Gibson's gimpy home run... I guess in a short series I have no choice but to have a short memory span. Anyway, tonight I'm going to immerse myself in basketball and then I'm going to look at each game of this upcoming World Series and see if I can share something new and insightful.
Enjoy the series.
Saturday, July 31, 2010
Arizona Diamondbacks: After the Deadline...
Looking over each trade the DBacks have made since Jerry DiPoto took over as interim GM, I must admit I have mixed emotions. After the firing of GM Josh Byrnes and Derrick Hall's recent statement about reducing payroll had me predicting a major sell-off; however, the quality of their returns do leave me questioning this organization's long-term strategy.
It's obvious DiPoto and Hall are looking to stockpile on a lot of young mid-range arms but a few of these trades do seem a bit desperate as many of the players listed below were traded with low returns.
It's obvious DiPoto and Hall are looking to stockpile on a lot of young mid-range arms but a few of these trades do seem a bit desperate as many of the players listed below were traded with low returns.
Monday, June 7, 2010
MLB Draft Day 1: Preview with a Slight Mock
Last season I went great lengths to post (yet another) MLB Amatuer Mock Draft. Looking over those picks I realized I failed to factor in team strategy in regards to the frequency of picks a certain team has in the early rounds to players being established as those able to sign for "slot money" (last season, C Tony Sanchez and RHP Mike Minor come to mind) to those willing to gamble on other options in hopes of a bigger bonus (LHP Tyler Matzek and RHP Jacob Turner, to name a few).
If one wants to correctly pick what each team will do, it's very important to know how each team approaches the amatuer draft: for example, a big market teams like the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees all differ in how they select amateur talent. On one side, the Mets are notorious for placing a small emphasis on the yearly draft while the Yankees have directed a higher share of their revenue in targeting more of the higher profile and expensive talent.
It's also important to understand that smaller market teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates, Oakland Athletics, Colorado Rockies and Texas Rangers view the draft as an important step in their team-building process as a larger percentage of their revenue is placed on the draft.
Some teams like the Dodgers and White Sox can be easily predicted; the Dodgers tend to grab up high upside high school talent (usually pitchers) while the White Sox tend to lean towards the more polished and conservative college route. While other teams with new management like the Blue Jays and Padres can only lead to speculation. Below, I will attempt to quickly summarize each team in the first few rounds and offer their expected strategy along with the player or players I feel are the best fit.
If one wants to correctly pick what each team will do, it's very important to know how each team approaches the amatuer draft: for example, a big market teams like the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees all differ in how they select amateur talent. On one side, the Mets are notorious for placing a small emphasis on the yearly draft while the Yankees have directed a higher share of their revenue in targeting more of the higher profile and expensive talent.
It's also important to understand that smaller market teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates, Oakland Athletics, Colorado Rockies and Texas Rangers view the draft as an important step in their team-building process as a larger percentage of their revenue is placed on the draft.
Some teams like the Dodgers and White Sox can be easily predicted; the Dodgers tend to grab up high upside high school talent (usually pitchers) while the White Sox tend to lean towards the more polished and conservative college route. While other teams with new management like the Blue Jays and Padres can only lead to speculation. Below, I will attempt to quickly summarize each team in the first few rounds and offer their expected strategy along with the player or players I feel are the best fit.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
The Ballad of Kyle Blanks
At the start of this season any fantasy baseball analyst worth their salt declared that Kyle Blanks should safely hit between 20-30 HR's in 2010. Raw power along with being named the starting left fielder during spring training did help; yet, despite these generous predictions, Blanks was able to stay under the radar in most mixed leagues as other young players like Jason Heyward, Austin Jackson, Colby Rasmus, and Travis Snider recieved more attention.
Last season, Blanks displayed a reasonable triple slash of .250/.355/.514 in 172 plate appearances. As you can see by those final two stats, Blanks displayed good plate judgement (in correlation to his batting average) along with above-average power. However, a major problem with his '09 stats were his high K rate of 37.2%. Throughout his minor league career, Blanks was seen as an Adam Dunn style player (hopefully with better fielding skills) and his growing walk rate showed promise and would work to curtail his high strikeout totals.
During those few '09 at bats, luck did play a part in regards to his very high HR/FB rate of 21.3% along with a high BABIP of .325 despite only hitting with a linedrive rate of 12%. Of course, small samples sizes must be damned when establishing order in the baseball world but I was able to successfully target Agent Blanks by landing him during the later rounds on both of my mixed-league fantasy teams.
Unfortunately, Mr. Blanks no longer takes up roster space on either of my teams after scoring a triple slash of .180/.311/.375 in 106 plate appearances as of May 11, 2010. A major problem during these appearances are the 41 strikeouts which comes in at an alarming 46.1%.
Blanks began the season hitting cleanup but has been dropped down in the order to seventh. So far, the Padres are fielding a competitive team and are lone occupiers of first place but how much longer is the team expected to utilize Blanks' high K rate and his, overall, lack of power? I say overall because according to Isolated Power score, Blanks is hitting a reasonable .191 and among his 16 hits - 10 have gone for extra bases.
Yet the sad ballad goes on...
Last season, Blanks displayed a reasonable triple slash of .250/.355/.514 in 172 plate appearances. As you can see by those final two stats, Blanks displayed good plate judgement (in correlation to his batting average) along with above-average power. However, a major problem with his '09 stats were his high K rate of 37.2%. Throughout his minor league career, Blanks was seen as an Adam Dunn style player (hopefully with better fielding skills) and his growing walk rate showed promise and would work to curtail his high strikeout totals.
During those few '09 at bats, luck did play a part in regards to his very high HR/FB rate of 21.3% along with a high BABIP of .325 despite only hitting with a linedrive rate of 12%. Of course, small samples sizes must be damned when establishing order in the baseball world but I was able to successfully target Agent Blanks by landing him during the later rounds on both of my mixed-league fantasy teams.
Unfortunately, Mr. Blanks no longer takes up roster space on either of my teams after scoring a triple slash of .180/.311/.375 in 106 plate appearances as of May 11, 2010. A major problem during these appearances are the 41 strikeouts which comes in at an alarming 46.1%.
Blanks began the season hitting cleanup but has been dropped down in the order to seventh. So far, the Padres are fielding a competitive team and are lone occupiers of first place but how much longer is the team expected to utilize Blanks' high K rate and his, overall, lack of power? I say overall because according to Isolated Power score, Blanks is hitting a reasonable .191 and among his 16 hits - 10 have gone for extra bases.
Yet the sad ballad goes on...
Monday, May 10, 2010
Explain me this...
I may be a bit late to "The Show" but I must say after two months of aggressive advertising and non-stop rotation on the MLB Network. I, being one of the many faithful doctors here at team transparency, decided to call out once and for all what exactly the advertisers for PS3 MLB The Show 10 are saying?
Case in point:
Why does Kevin Butler keep up this ridiculous charade of not knowing who Joe Mauer is? And to whose benefit does this even... benefit? I understand last year's schitck of 09's coverboy Dustin Pedroia being a bit insulted at his avatar's limitation and Butler acting bewildered when called upon but here the joke seems to be a bit forced and flat.
Also, why does Mr. Mauer possess compromising photos of PS3 executive Kevin Butler anyway??? Did they party in ways that would embarrass most men? What others photos does Mr. Mauer have and does he intend to further blackmail this executive? Do they suggest that Mr. Butler is hiding something and the relationship he has with the current AL MVP may be a bit more salacious??
Anyway, it could be funny but ,hopefully, some new and better comedic routine is thought of next season.
Case in point:
Why does Kevin Butler keep up this ridiculous charade of not knowing who Joe Mauer is? And to whose benefit does this even... benefit? I understand last year's schitck of 09's coverboy Dustin Pedroia being a bit insulted at his avatar's limitation and Butler acting bewildered when called upon but here the joke seems to be a bit forced and flat.
Also, why does Mr. Mauer possess compromising photos of PS3 executive Kevin Butler anyway??? Did they party in ways that would embarrass most men? What others photos does Mr. Mauer have and does he intend to further blackmail this executive? Do they suggest that Mr. Butler is hiding something and the relationship he has with the current AL MVP may be a bit more salacious??
Anyway, it could be funny but ,hopefully, some new and better comedic routine is thought of next season.
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