2010 Winter Meetings: Day One

Looking at a few transactions before the meetings officially began:

Red Sox traded RHP Casey Kelly, 1B Anthony Rizzo, OF Reymond Fuentes to the San Diego Padres for 1B Adrian Gonzalez.  The deal became finalized when Gonzalez agreed to an extension of seven years at $154M.  According to reports the contract is not set to kick in until the 2012 season.

Nationals signed Jayson Werth for seven years at $126M.  Obviously the Nationals were forced to overpay for Werth's services and the timing was also a shock since it

Cardinals sign 34 year old Lance Berkman for one season at $8M.  As it stands, Berkman will be patrolling LF and there will be questions as to how he will hold up defensively since he hasn't played the OF with any regularity since 2004.  I still think there may be more to this acquisition and it may not fully manifest itself until after the meetings have concluded.

The Yankees tie up two major responsibilities by signing both Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera. 

Other transactions that occurred as the meetings began:

RHP Aaron Harang and the Padres agreed to a one-year contract with a mutual option in 2012.  Looking at Harang's abilities he should find himself improving in the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park and at $4M next season, this could be a steal.

The Blue Jays traded RHP Shaun Marcum to the Brewers for 2B prospect Brett Lawrie. Looking at his Double-A stats, Lawrie has above average power for a middle infielder.  He will be set to start 2011 in the PCL and he could see his power numbers take another step forward but the Jays will be watching how other parts of his game develop including his plate discipline and defense.  On the Brewers side, Marcum should be a good addition to their rotation since pitching depth is a major necessity and his move to the NL Central should bump up his value considerably.  Marcum does have two more years left before he is eligible for free agency and will be heading for arbitration if a deal isn't reached for next season.

The Dbacks were active yesterday as they traded 3B Mark Reynolds to the Orioles for a couple of bullpen arms in Kam Mickolio and David Hernandez.  Both Mickolio and Hernandez pitch from the right side and are major upgrades to a team that had major bullpen issues in 2010.  In my SB Nation post, I did recommend Mickolio as a possible option the Dbacks should look into but I do feel the Dbacks did limit themselves in prematurely announcing their desire to trade Reynolds since I strongly feel the Dbacks sold low in this deal.  Obviously Reynolds has his issues with strikeouts but his age and reasonable contract combined with someone with above average power and adequate defense could make the O's the winner in this deal.  Last season Reynolds was crippled by a .193 batting average but his low BABIP does point to a probable bounce back up to his expected range around .250.

Later on the Dbacks announced they had come to an agreement with free agents Melvin Mora and J.J. Putz.  Mora will be 39 next season and looks like a minor stop-gap since the deal was for only one season at $2M. Mora doesn't have the power he once had but he will do his part to reduce the team's strikeouts but he was below average with the glove and I don't see any reason why this should reverse itself.  Putz is coming off his best season since 2007 and seems to be past the elbow issues that plauged him in '08 and '09.  The Dbacks signed him for two years at $10M with the intention that he will be the closer. 

Looking at the offseason and the problems of covering the postseason.

Since I'm still debating a name change for this site, I will direct readers to Part One of a possible three piece series I'm writing at the AZ Snakepit which speculates on a variety of directions Kevin Towers may go as GM of the D-backs.

The first part explores the D-backs bullpen, I'm hoping to have Part Two (which will look at their starting pitching staff) up in the next few days.

Also, I've been asked by the Hardball Times to help out with their postseason coverage. This is an incredible honor and one that challenges me since I've never really done postseason analysis before. Obviously, as a baseball fan I've always been quick to throw out an opinion here and there about each short series but I've never been one to search out articles beyond the occasional recap.

It's strange I am starting to notice more analysis about each given series but most of it treads on the same few themes:

1. Pointing out what mistakes the broadcasters are making: this is such a point of contention and one that is very easy to (justifiably) pick apart (Dave Cameron did this very well, recently, with his defense of Ryan Howard.)

2. How each manager handles or mishandles the team's bullpen and positional platoons.

3. Looking at announcements made regarding the formation of a team's pitching staff and batting order.

4. Shuffling through the stats after the fact - what went wrong in a single player's 20-26 at bats or 4-16 innings from a single starting pitcher.

These are basic approaches but very easy to do in a quick mash-up of 1500 words or less.

Ultimately there is an art here and many writers much better than myself have achieved it or come very close to capturing something much deeper than four simple points I've listed. The one thing that I have trouble coming to terms with is the idea of trying to apply intelligent statistical analysis to a series where too many variables seem to exist.

Recently, Jay Jaffe did a good job of coming to terms with the Yankees recent loss to the Rangers as a microcosm of what was wrong with the Yankees despite their 95 win season. It's laughable to many to watch a team win 95 games and still point out their flaws and limitations - but it's possible. The same day my article was released on THT, Steve Treder published a very fun piece about the 10 great What If's regarding the World Series. It's a great read and really looks at the what could have been if one or two little things went right. It also does nothing to settle the argument about why the best teams never face each other in the World Series... but can that "argument" ever be solved?

I guess the best thing I can do is try to look at these games individually and later see what can be discovered collectively.  I will always be fascinated with how statistics measure how we objectively look at something - whether it be the span of an entire career or what we can expect in the future (be it the direction of a franchise or prospect) but that is different from looking at a span of 4 to 7 games.

I guess that's why I'll always remember one or two things about each series - whether it's Buckner's boot or Gibson's gimpy home run... I guess in a short series I have no choice but to have a short memory span.  Anyway, tonight I'm going to immerse myself in basketball and then I'm going to look at each game of this upcoming World Series and see if I can share something new and insightful.

Enjoy the series.

Arizona Diamondbacks: After the Deadline...

Looking over each trade the DBacks have made since Jerry DiPoto took over as interim GM, I must admit I have mixed emotions.  After the firing of GM Josh Byrnes and Derrick Hall's recent statement about reducing payroll had me predicting a major sell-off; however, the quality of their returns do leave me questioning this organization's long-term strategy. 

It's obvious DiPoto and Hall are looking to stockpile on a lot of young mid-range arms but a few of these trades do seem a bit desperate as many of the players listed below were traded with low returns.

MLB Draft Day 1: Preview with a Slight Mock

Last season I went great lengths to post (yet another) MLB Amatuer Mock Draft.  Looking over those picks I realized I failed to factor in team strategy in regards to the frequency of picks a certain team has in the early rounds to players being established as those able to sign for "slot money" (last season, C Tony Sanchez and RHP Mike Minor come to mind) to those willing to gamble on other options in hopes of a bigger bonus (LHP Tyler Matzek and RHP Jacob Turner, to name a few).

If one wants to correctly pick what each team will do, it's very important to know how each team approaches the amatuer draft: for example, a big market teams like the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees all differ in how they select amateur talent.  On one side, the Mets are notorious for placing a small emphasis on the yearly draft while the Yankees have directed a higher share of their revenue in targeting more of the higher profile and expensive talent.

It's also important to understand that smaller market teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates, Oakland Athletics, Colorado Rockies and Texas Rangers view the draft as an important step in their team-building process as a larger percentage of their revenue is placed on the draft.

Some teams like the Dodgers and White Sox can be easily predicted; the Dodgers tend to grab up high upside high school talent (usually pitchers) while the White Sox tend to lean towards the more polished and conservative college route.  While other teams with new management like the Blue Jays and Padres can only lead to speculation.  Below, I will attempt to quickly summarize each team in the first few rounds and offer their expected strategy along with the player or players I feel are the best fit.

The Ballad of Kyle Blanks

At the start of this season any fantasy baseball analyst worth their salt declared that Kyle Blanks should safely hit between 20-30 HR's in 2010. Raw power along with being named the starting left fielder during spring training did help; yet, despite these generous predictions, Blanks was able to stay under the radar in most mixed leagues as other young players like Jason Heyward, Austin Jackson, Colby Rasmus, and Travis Snider recieved more attention.

Last season, Blanks displayed a reasonable triple slash of .250/.355/.514 in 172 plate appearances.  As you can see by those final two stats, Blanks displayed good plate judgement (in correlation to his batting average) along with above-average power.  However, a major problem with his '09 stats were his high K rate of 37.2%.  Throughout his minor league career, Blanks was seen as an Adam Dunn style player (hopefully with better fielding skills) and his growing walk rate showed promise and would work to curtail his high strikeout totals.

During those few '09 at bats, luck did play a part in regards to his very high HR/FB rate of 21.3% along with a high BABIP of .325 despite only hitting with a linedrive rate of 12%.  Of course, small samples sizes must be damned when establishing order in the baseball world but I was able to successfully target Agent Blanks by landing him during the later rounds on both of my mixed-league fantasy teams.

Unfortunately, Mr. Blanks no longer takes up roster space on either of my teams after scoring a triple slash of .180/.311/.375 in 106 plate appearances as of May 11, 2010.  A major problem during these appearances are the 41 strikeouts which comes in at an alarming 46.1%.

Blanks began the season hitting cleanup but has been dropped down in the order to seventh.  So far, the Padres are fielding a competitive team and are lone occupiers of first place but how much longer is the team expected to utilize Blanks' high K rate and his, overall, lack of power?  I say overall because according to Isolated Power score, Blanks is hitting a reasonable .191 and among his 16 hits - 10 have gone for extra bases. 

Yet the sad ballad goes on...

Explain me this...

I may be a bit late to "The Show" but I must say after two months of aggressive advertising and non-stop rotation on the MLB Network.  I, being one of the many faithful doctors here at team transparency, decided to call out once and for all what exactly the advertisers for PS3 MLB The Show 10 are saying?

Case in point:


Why does Kevin Butler keep up this ridiculous charade of not knowing who Joe Mauer is? And to whose benefit does this even... benefit? I understand last year's schitck of 09's coverboy Dustin Pedroia being a bit insulted at his avatar's limitation and Butler acting bewildered when called upon but here the joke seems to be a bit forced and flat.

Also, why does Mr. Mauer possess compromising photos of PS3 executive Kevin Butler anyway??? Did they party in ways that would embarrass most men?  What others photos does Mr. Mauer have and does he intend to further blackmail this executive?  Do they suggest that Mr. Butler is hiding something and the relationship he has with the current AL MVP may be a bit more salacious??

Anyway, it could be funny but ,hopefully, some new and better comedic routine is thought of next season.

A Brief and Transparent Look at American Hooliganism (a crime of sports fit for both the young and old!)

After all the viral buzzing (Ha! pun partially intended) of yesterday's incident in Philadelphia, the question was posed to us readers: has this ever happened before?

To back up a bit, the incident involved a 17 year old alleged Phillie fan, Steve Consalvi, who seemingly called his father for permission to trespass onto Citizen's Bank Park outfield during the 8th inning of yesterday's game.  After receiving an ambivalent answer from the old man (in the father's defense, he did later call a friend of his also at the game to try to talk some sense to the boy), Steve jumped onto the field and gave chase to stadium officials only to be tasered to the ground.

If anyone cares, the boy did recover and was medically cleared before being charged with criminal trespass but this incident has brought up the legality and potential safety issues of dealing with unruly fans (as well as a few boo's judging by the fan's reaction to this tasering).

Officially, no one has ever been tasered or shot at on the field of a professional baseball game and this includes the scary 2002 incident in Chicago where a father and his 15 year old son decided to attack a Kansas City Royals first base coach with a switchblade.  Drugs and various latent domestic issues were later to blame (although the son, now 23, still counts it as a crowning achievement). 

And even this incident of gross-out proportions earlier this season at a Phillies game could have been argued that tasering the said belligerent WASN'T ENOUGH!

However, in the stands and in parking lots, tasering the unruly has become quite common judging by this list.  But allow me, for a moment, to settle my transparent gaze on an incident involving a fan at an Oakland A's game last August.  During the seventh inning in a game between the Oakland A's and Texas Rangers, stadium officials were alerted to the actions of a drunken fan being profane and beligerent.  The fan was identified as 62 year old Thomas Bruso, and based on the video of the incident, one could draw up many conclusions on whether the use of tasering was valid or not.  Although it is interesting to watch the reactions of the fans becoming unsettled and angry with the police; conjuring up the age-old mantra that violence begets violence. 

*** in a related (or un-related) note, the same Thomas Bruso who was tasered at the Oakland A's game was also involved in a racially charged fight on a public bus earlier this year which was, again, captured on video-phone.  Apparently, this loon is a semi-celebrity in the bay area and his "explanation" of why he fought does seem to purge any shred of credence he previously may have had.

Enjoy, or not.