Notes on the 2011 MLB Trade Deadline: NL West edition

With this season's trade deadline set to expire at the end of July, most news coming out of the sport seems wrought with rumors, speculation and trade advice.  Below is a quick rundown of all the divisions along with each team's probable status, names involved, measured opinions by author, etc.

*note: all stats and team standings were taken prior to July 20, 2011

NL WEST:

According to the playoff odds report at Baseball Prospectus, the Giants are expected to easily win the division with 93 expected wins while the DBacks (82.2) and Rockies (80.1) fighting it out for a distant second.  Recently, the Giants have won eight out of ten and sit on top of the division with a, somewhat, comfortable 4 1/2 game lead over the DBacks.  The Rockies are still struggling to play .500 ball and are 10 1/2 behind.

Below is a quick breakdown of each team's 2011 payroll and the number of free agents (club options were included) and arbitration eligibles in 2012:

	2011 Payroll	2012 FA's	2012 Arbs.
Giants	$118.2 M	7	12
Dbacks	$56.5 M	4	5
Rockies	$82.3 M	3	4
Dodgers	$119.7 M	12	6
Padres	$45.8 M	4	14

2011 NFL Team Preview: the Raiders of Oakland

In an effort to expand this blog to cover all major American sports, I will periodically turn my attention to the NFL to break down a handful of teams possibly due for a breakout this upcoming season.  With talks between the league and the players association looking optimistic - my goal is to have this done sometime before the end of August.  This first entry will look at the Oakland Raiders.

If all goes to according to plan, this will be the first of a five-part series. Next season, folks.

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Last season the Raiders finished with a record of 8-8 including an impressive 6-0 within their division. Despite playing in the AFC West, this showing wasn’t enough to garner them a playoff spot but there were some positives compared to previous seasons. According to projections published in the previous Football Outsiders Almanac, the Raiders were expected to be no better than a 4 to 5 win team. Standard observation considering the fact that many questions and doubts lingered throughout almost every major position on the team; so, what caused them to perform much better than expected?

Offense

In 2009, the Raiders under first-time head coach Tom Cable turned in an offense that ranked almost last in total DVOA at -22.3%. In his second season, Cable decided to do things a bit differently. After struggling with injuries and under-performance from many key young players, the plan became to simplify this offensive unit with the signing of perpetual quarterback project, Jason Campbell, as well as bringing in first-time offensive coordinator Hue Jackson.

2011 MLB Draft, day 2: rounds 2-30

In my opinion, the top five surprises from yesterday were:

1. Mariners skipping a bat and drafting Danny Hultzen 2nd overall.
2. Josh Bell fails to be drafted in day one (maybe Conor Glassey was right in his tweet regarding Bell's family and their comm. to education).
3. Dbacks going all-in and taking Archie Bradley at number 7 (very bold move and could be a good one).
4. The Mets taking a chance on Brandon Nimmo (only a surprise since everyone figured they were locked in on college pitching).
5. The Royals skipping their favorite bat in Anthony Rendon and taking Bubba Starling.

Other than that, nothing else was too surprising.  Daniel Norris not being drafted could qualify but I've heard that his delivery needs some cleaning and his bonus demands are reported to be high.  I guess I could say that I'm surprised the Yankees at number 51 didn't take a flyer out on him (or on Dillon Howard, for that matter).

Final few hours before the 2011 MLB draft: the Cole v. Rendon debate

According to Mayo, Pirates have finally made their decision regarding their top pick this draft (spoiler alert: Gerrit Cole will be called upon).

Arguments are flooding in against this selection - it's a viable argument but in a draft where the two top positional players have serious questions about health and projection and where a large number of potential aces or solid mid-rotation arms can be scooped up, nothing stands out as "can't miss" in this year's first-player draft.

I'm not going to defend or criticize the Pirates selection since Cole has shown first-round capabilities both out of high school and as a junior in college.  Cole has maintained his development as a potential major league pitcher and now it seems it's up to the Pirates development and health for him to fully succeed.  The former will be something the team can control.  I'm sure, depending on how quickly he signs, Cole could report to High-A Bradenton or he/they could elect to skip this summer and let him debut for about 40 innings in the Arizona Fall League.

Health is another matter for Cole and I haven't come across any reports declaring mechanical issues that would need to be cleaned up.  So, depending on the amount of innings and pitches Cole has thrown for UCLA the past few seasons it may be prudent for them shut him down until spring of 2012 - but nothing, in terms of overall health, is ever guaranteed.

According to a recent Fangraphs article by Dave Cameron, Cole has the highest ERA, HR's allowed, and opp. batting average on the 2011 Bruins team and, along with the shoddy track record of pitchers taken first overall, this could be a formula for disaster.  As further stated by Cameron, Cole's BABIP was high but with the engineering surrounding college bats (even the new and "approved" BBCOR bats) BABIP still has the potential to flucuate based on a.) small sample of innings (114 IP, which Cameron acknowledges) and b.) traditionally, college defenses are subpar and c.) even with the newly sanctioned BBCOR bats, the "sweet spot" has been dramatically reduced along with the removal of its "trampoline/bounce effect" but metal bats still don't break and this can reduce other possibilities of weak contact when a wooden bat breaks or shatters.

Like Quarterbacks being draft first in the NFL (or early in the first round) a lot of risk is always involved and money, esp. with football, regarding all pitchers but I still don't see Anthony Rendon with his questionable size and questionable health as being amunition for an agrument against the selection of Cole as first - even the next best positional prospect, Bubba Starling, has a lot of talent but just as many question marks since he is so raw.

If Rendon was healthy or if he agreed to release his medical report showing exactly what is ailing his shoulder then (based on this med. report being positive) I would argue that selecting the lesser of two evils (amatuer bat over amatuer pitcher) would be wise.

Until then, this draft is loaded with too many question marks on both ends and no clear conclusion regarding the Cole v. Rendon camp can or should be made until next season.

2010 Winter Meetings: Day Three Aftermath

After watching day three unfold at a snail's pace, the Red Sox delivered a minor shocker last night by announcing the signing of Carl Crawford for seven years at $142M. 

The timing and years of this deal are surprising. Many figured that Crawford wouldn't sign or be approached with a deal to his liking until after the meetings and with Jayson Werth signing a few days earlier for the same number years most figured Crawford would be a lock for eight to possibly ten years! 

With the Yankees locked in on acquiring Cliff Lee it seems as though Boston only had to compete with the Los Angeles Angels for Crawford's services and with the playing narrowed quite substantially, it makes sense that the Sox could acquire a player of this age and caliber and still ward off any further risk that could occur if this contract was extended to 2018 and beyond.

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The Crawford signing was good news to the Lee camp since it made the Yankees blink as they've upped their offer to seven years for Cliff Lee.  It's probable that this deal could look like an anchor in a few seasons but on the bright side for us Yankee fans: signing Lee should allow us to keep Jesus Montero since our necessity to trade for a top-end starter seems to have gone down a bit. 

The status of Andy Pettite is still unknown and with the Sox adding another potent left-handed hitter to their mix makes the Yanks need Lee all the more.  Before the Crawford deal, the Yankees were standing firm on six years for Cliff Lee despite mentions of a "mystery" team contacted Lee's agent with a seven year offer.  During yesterday's proceedings, it was reported that GM Brian Cashman received a phone call from Pettite but no decision has been made about his return.  Even with Lee in the fold, Pettite would find room in the Yanks 2011 rotation but with a lot of money tied up to pitchers past '11 (assuming Lee signs), the Yankees will have to make some big decisions with what to do with their three pitching prospects (Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, and Andrew Brackman) since the the team is hoping that all three will be MLB ready by 2012.

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Yesterday, some minor moves were made as the Mariners signed Jack Cust for one season.  The Royals grabbed Jeff Francoeur for a single season with a mutual option; both players figure to share platoon time with their respective teammates.

The Padres picked up a SS by trading for Jason Bartlett and sending over a few interesting relievers back to Tampa Bay in the process.  One of those relievers, Cesar Ramos did struggle a bit with command last season but he is effective in inducing groundballs and could be an upgrade over LOOGY incumbent Randy Choate. 

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Later today, teams will partake in the annual Rule 5 draft; expect the occasional speedy outfielder along with the handful of left-handed bullpen arms to be coveted.  It will, however, be interesting to see if last season's analyst favorite, Aneury Rodriguez from the Rays, gets picked up.

2010 Winter Meetings: Early Day Three notes

Judging by MLB Network's constant loop of yesterday's news, it's safe to assume that much hasn't occured since reports came out about a "mystery team" offering Cliff Lee seven years (I think I've watched the Kevin Towers interview four times now...)

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Day Two Officialisms:

Ty Wigginton brings his shoddy glove and middling power to Colorado as their right-handed counterpart to Todd Helton at 1B for two years at $8M.  Looking over his 2010 stats, I'm a bit surprised that Wigginton logged in over 300 innings as a second baseman!  Obviously, he didn't do it well but I guess Brian Roberts injury last season put the O's into true desperation mode.

The Mets grabbed D.J. Carrasco for two years at a little over a million per.  I'm surprised the Dbacks didn't elect to try and bring DJ back since he was one of the few Dbacks not burned by the long ball.  He was eligible for arbitration this offseason and Dbacks GM, Kevin Towers, did admit to keeping Carrasco on their "radar screens" after he was released.  I'm guessing that the sudden rise in player salaries this winter may have put a wrench in their plans to re-sign him for a lower rate. 

Joel Sherman has reported via twitter that the Yankees have received the medical information on Russell Martin.  However, no deal has been reached but this should be interesting in terms of how the Yankees are looking towards assembling their team of catchers in 2011. The Red Sox are also interested in Martin's services as their catching situation may also get a bit crowded with Jarrod Saltalamacchia on the roster and the recent re-signing of Jason Varitek. The Mets have also shown considerable interest but that has cooled since they signed Ronny Paulino to one season.

The extent of Martin's late season hip injury will be examined.  If signed, Martin won't come at a bargain rate; the Dodgers did make an offer around $4+M with added incentives.  It's been reported that Martin wants at least $5.5M next season and if signed by the Yankees or Red Sox then decisions will have to be made regarding their catching depth since both Salty and the Yanks Francisco Cervelli project as the odd men out.

Trades talks are heating up for Zack Greinke, some sources are saying that Toronto is on his no-trade list but recent reports have come out that he would be willing to waive this clause to help KC get the best offer.  So far, their camp seems to be waiting on what Cliff Lee decides to do regarding the Rangers.

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This morning it became official that Paul Konerko will stay with the White Sox when a deal engineered by Jerry Reinsdorf was reached at three years/$37M.  Watch as the Sox's current logjam at first basemen plays out next season, Dunn probably came to Chicago at least with an understanding that Konerko could return - both rated poor defensively last season and it will be interesting to see who gets the main share of DH-ing duty.

Based on how the market's been heading, I was surprised to see Carlos Pena settle for a one year deal at $10M.  Sure his production was down last season but in a market that gave Ty Wigginton two guaranteed years was this strategy worth it? Assuming he bounces back, he will have plenty of competition in the market next season as Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols (again, assuming he doesn't reach a longterm deal) as a 1B free agent and he will be 34 years old... yikes!

Again, it looks like those pesky Nationals are still running around with their parent's checkbook.  Recent reports have them courting Carl Pavano and looking into possibly trading for Zack Greinke or Matt Garza.  The former, I guess, seems reasonable.  Pavano won't break the bank since the going rate has been three years but looking at the Nationals interest in trading for either Garza or Greinke is confusing since it doesn't follow the logical path of a team still needing to build from within.  Many analysts agree that the Nationals should be serious contenders in the two or three seasons and a lot of that success will depend on how other prospects not named Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper develop.

2010 Winter Meetings: Early Day Two Notes

The Nationals still seem intent on pursuing Cliff Lee and will need to overpay (again) to give this rumor any credence but it's very tough to see Lee going to a non-contender at this stage of his career.

It will be interesting to see how serious the Yankees become with news that Andy Pettite possibly retiring and with the Red Sox acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez.

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The Prince Fielder trade rumors have seemingly fired up again; the latest has the Dodgers as being serious suitors for the big man and have initiated talks by offering RHP Jonathan Broxton and 1B James Loney along with a possible marginal prospect.

I did like the acquisition of Shaun Marcum to help stabilize their rotation next season for the cost of a top prospect seemingly blocked by a group of young and effective positional players.  For the Brewers to contend next season it's important that they add another pitcher in the backend who could be effective in eating up innings but if they trade Fielder then things could become tricky.  Last season, the Brewers saw a resurgance in players like Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart which was necessary in giving them a quality all-around offense.  It's become accepted that this will be Fielder's final season and with him not interested in signing a long-term deal until after the 2011 season, he becomes very diffiult to trade since he becomes nothing more than a one season rental.

I've always felt that the Brewers would be better served to keep Fielder as their cleanup hitter since no quality trade package could be expected.  If Fielder stays and the Brewers find a few suitable pitchers (so far, one has been acquired) then it would serve this team both competitively and financially to prepare themselves to go deep into next season's playoffs. If they flip Fielder for James Loney and Jonathan Broxton, obviously their offense should take a noticeable hit since having a powerful left-handed bat is vital since this team tends to lean a bit far to the right. 

Loney is a good linedrive hitter and is able to make consistent contact but his lack of power and average walk rate limits him.  At best he projects as a quality #2 or #6 hitter.

Broxton is coming off a disappointing season and the Dodgers do seem eager to unload him.  I think Broxton still has the stuff to close and would be a great addition on a number of teams but on the Brewers he would be more of a luxury than a necessity. Also, his status as a free agent after next season must be taken into account since he may not be too excited if expected to time share closing opportunites with John Axford. 

More notes on the way...