Three Non-Rookie Pitchers Poised for a Breakout in 2010

Looking at last season's rise of Adam Wainwright, Matt Garza and Ubaldo Jimenez as legitimate top of the rotation starters I decided to look for some common traits these pitchers had and see if I could spot some of next season's possible breakout candidates.

Some could argue that Adam Wainwright's breakout came in '08 after posting an 11-3 record in only 20 starts (his 2008 was cut short by a sprained middle finger on his pitching hand) but significant strides made in his K/9 (going up from 6.2 to 8.2 in one season) along with the consistent command of his above average curveball induced more opposing batters to hit groundballs (rose from 45.9% to a career high 50.7% from '08 to '09) as well as an increase in swings outside the strikezone.  Matt Garza was another beneficiary of what can happen when your K/9 goes up almost two clicks (from 6.9 in '08 to 8.5 last season) thereby solidifing his status as a valuable part of Tampa Bay's rotation.  Ubaldo Jimenez always had a promising fastball but his high BB rates kept him from being a legitimate MLB option.  Wisely, the Rockies knew Jimenez had the arsenal to be a starting pitcher (they could have easily took his 4 seam fastball that can touch 100 mph and threw him in the bullpen hoping he could be an immediate closer).  Last season, Jimenez put it all together and the advancements made to his slider and changeup helped to increase his K/9 (from 7.79 to 8.17) and, most importantly, decreased his BB rate (from 4.67 in '08 to 3.5 last season).

Of course other pitchers made considerable leaps from their 2008 to '09 seasons (Zach Grienke, Jon Lester, Josh Johnson and Edwin Jackson come to mind).  However, most of these leaps were expected given the status of each of these pitchers going into last season. Below, I have posted three players I expect to breakout after showing some promising traits last season.

WAR and the Joe Mauer Extension

Yesterday Joe Mauer signed an 8 year extension worth $184 million dollars.  By all acounts with Target Field set to open early next month this was a deal Minnesota had to get done if they wanted to be perceived as dedicated to their fanbase.  Breaking down this contract, Mauer will be paid $23 million dollars annually from 2011 till 2018 and will receive full no-trade protection through the duration of this deal.

Now the question is: Will Joe Mauer be worth it? 

This is the fourth largest contract in the history of baseball and one that could financially strap a small to medium market team like Minnesota if this deal goes sour.  Looking over the past four seasons we can break down Mauer's value in terms of wins he generated over that of an average replacement player.  The stat I'm using is called Wins Above Replacement or WAR for short and it seems to be a favorite among the statistically inclined.  Over a year ago, Dave Cameron at FanGraphs wrote a series of articles explaining how this stat is measured and how it can improve in the future and it's highly suggested that you read it to get a detailed explanation.

Remaining Free Agents

Reading Tim Dierkes post yesterday about MLB transactions at this time last year; I decided to examine a few of the remaining free agents and speculate on where they may end up.  Although I don't expect much action to occur from now till Opening Day, but as more pitchers experience soreness and other injuries and platoon possibilities seem likely, it's expected a few teams may be in need of their service.

****
Hank Blalock: He is listed at 1B but DH may become his true position.  Last season he posted .234/.277/.459 in 462 AB's (which were the most he has seen since the 2006 season).  Besides hitting 25 HR's, Blalock saw career lows in his BB% (5.3) and a major increase in his K% (23.4).  Below I have listed a few other reasons as to why he is still available as well as a few likely scenarios for Blalock as the preseason develops.

2010 Team Analysis: Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles:

2009 Record: 64-98

General Manager: Andy MacPhail

Manager: Dave Trembley


Organizational Philosophy: in summer of 2007 the Orioles finally said enough is enough and hired a bonafide baseball mind in Andy MacPhail.  Growing up in Baltimore I'm sure it's been a lifelong dream for MacPhail to run the O's and with his the glowing resume yet unassuming demeanor, I'm not surprised that he has quietly and swiftly put this team on the right track.

Early in 2008, MacPhail made a key move by trading popular starter Erik Bedard to Mariners for a slew of key prospects (of which included Adam Jones, George Sherrill and Chris Tillman).  During the '08 season Sherill was featured as the Baltimore closer and, despite his lousy control, was flipped in 2009 to the Dodgers for promising 3B prospect Josh Bell.  Since MacPhail was hired the Orioles have been commited to unloading any valuable palyers that do not fit into their longterm plans and drafting and stocking up on young talent.  In 2010, they may have the best young outfield in all of baseball with Nolan Reimold, Adam Jones and Nick Markasis; however, their division does pose a huge struggle but they could very well soon be adding their name to the list of why the AL East is so dominant.

2010 Team Analysis: Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays:

2009 Record: 75-87

General Manager: Alex Anthopoulos

Manager: Cito Gaston


Organizational Philosophy: after spending the majority of the last decade spinning their wheels with a below average return on their draft picks and overpriced free agent acquisitions.  The Blue Jays decided to look in-house and reassemble and increase the size and scope of their once-beleagured scouting department.

The former GM J.P. Ricciardi was greeted with good news by sabermetricians when he was first hired in 2001 and took many of the lessons he learned under Oakland A's GM Billy Beane by valuing defense and on-base percentage as a metric for uncovering hidden MLB talent.  Another procedure he learned that eventually backfired was being overally conservative and prefering low-risk college players over raw high school talent come draft day.  This strategy became famous in the Michael Lewis book "Moneyball" and concerning a low-revenue team like the A's; this strategy was best, but Ricciardi had more money to operate and patch up holes via free agency so taking more chances and looking to fill his minor league system with a few high-upside prospects wouldn't have hurt. 

To me, Ricciardi was stuck in the past and when he tried to play the free agent market and lock up a few players long-term, three names come to mind: B.J. Ryan, Vernon Wells and Alex Rios.  Of these three: one is on the verge of retirement, one has been miraculously picked up by another team and the other one continues to bog down the payroll and makes any longterm financial manuverings difficult.  New GM Alex Anthopoulos has been with Ricciardi since 2006 but vows to change the direction of this organization.  He has put a strong emphasis on scouting and player development and has unloaded franchise player Roy Halladay with a percieved degree of success (however, the final analysis depends on how Kyle Drabek, Brett Wallace and Travis d'Arnaud develop).

2010 Team Analysis: Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays:

2009 Record: 84-78

General Manager: Andrew Friedman

Manager: Joe Maddon


Organizational Philosophy: pity the poor Rays! Here is a franchise doing everything right; they draft well, they scout well, they can crunch numbers and stats with the best of them and they have taken this formula and found success through their miraculous World Series run in 2008.  Last offseason, most analysts figured the Rays had the talent and capability to dominate not only the AL East but all of baseball until 2014. However, youth, regression along with a lack of overabundant finances have conspired with one another and have seemingly transformed the Tampa Bay Rays into a very good but not-quite-good-enough team.

Obviously, if the Rays were in the NL East or AL Central talk would center on them being huge playoff contenders but being stuck in the AL East only makes things harder.  Since coming on board in 2005, GM Andrew Friedman took a directionless franchise and installed a sense of purpose from top to bottom.  Friedman knew the Rays would never enjoy the financial benefits the Yanks and Red Sox shared so he implemented a greater focus on player development that installs talent and depth in pitching and offense.  The Rays also use their resources to find value in players disregarded by other franchises, it's a strategy now used by most MLB teams (Astros and Royals seem to be a few of the exceptions).

Looking ahead to 2010, I do expect the Rays to fully contend despite their unfortunate geographical position on the AL map.  I also look forward to them coming up with new operational strategies not yet shared with the public that will give them advantages to compete against both the two reigning superpowers and all of baseball.

2010 Team Analysis: Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox:

2009 Record: 95-67

General Manager: Theo Epstein

Manager: Terry Francona


Organizational Philosophy: since John Henry bought this team in 2002 and flirted with the idea of hiring Billy Beane as his first GM, the Red Sox have become favorites among statisticians and sabermetricians.  On the financial side, Henry has been a genius in revitalizing the Red Sox franchise and turning them into a major brand name.  Since he purchased them, they have built and sustained a healthy payroll and made a significant profit.

On the front office side, the hiring of Theo Epstein as GM and publically announcing that stathead guru Bill James would come onboard as an advisor made it clear to everyone that the "moneyball" era was here to stay.  Since that time, statistical analysis has evolved past the basic formulas fleshed out in Michael Lewis' 2003 book but the Red Sox (and their later success) were instrumental in giving this minor revolution legitimacy.

As a philosophy, the Red Sox operate as a team of incredibly talented baseball minds that are well-versed in the process of finding market inefficiencies, looking for statistical advantages and locating talent (both here and abroad) showing signs of future MLB success.  The Red Sox have been able to win by using an assortment of strategies such as locating players previously released (David Ortiz) or as marginal free agent pickups (Bill Mueller and Kevin Millar come to mind).  The team also has their fair share of splashy trades (Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, Coco Crisp and Jason Bay) but the bulk of their lineup comes through player development.  Jonathon Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are important homegrown pieces to this team and with their pipeline emerging more and more intriguing prospects (Casey Kelly, Ryan Westmoreland, Michael Bowden, and Josh Reddick to name a few), this franchise has presented itself as an efficient business model.