Notes on the 2011 MLB Trade Deadline: NL East edition

As expected, this is forming into a two-team race between the Phillies and the Braves with the latter expected to be named as the league's wild card.  The Mets have installed a talented front office and should be competitive in the next few seasons but no one expected them to hover around .500.  The Marlins are a mess and will be unpredictable while Jeffrey Loria is in charge.  Meanwhile, in the nation's capital, I like to believe that GM Mike Rizzo has a plan since I do trust the direction they are heading.

NL East

Looking at BP's projections, both favorites in this division should easily crack 90 wins with the Phillies coming in at 96-97 and the Braves settling for 92-93.

	2011 Payroll	2012 FA's	2012 Arbs.
Phillies	$166 M	8	7
Braves	$91 M	6	6
Mets	$142.8 M	9	5
Marlins	$57.7 M	5	11
Nationals	$68 M	10	7

Notes on the 2011 MLB Trade Deadline: NL Central edition

Looking over the NL Central things are looking rather interesting at the top of the standings.  So far, with one week of games played in the second half, we have a mere four and a half games that separate the Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds.

Obviously, the Pirates are a huge surprise and have played .500 baseball since the first few weeks of June.  Many expected them to fade away but they have gained ground and briefly had their time in first place as recently as July 19th.

NL CENTRAL

Going over the playoff odds report at Baseball Prospectus, the Brewers are the favorite but it should be very, very close as it could take as few as 87 wins to wrap up this division.

	2011 Payroll	2012 FA's	2012 Arbs.
Brewers	$83.5 M	6	9
Pirates	$42 M	6	12
Cardinals	$109 M	8	6
Reds	$80.8 M	6	8
Cubs	$134 M	7	6
Astros	$77 M	2	7

Notes on the 2011 MLB Trade Deadline: NL West edition

With this season's trade deadline set to expire at the end of July, most news coming out of the sport seems wrought with rumors, speculation and trade advice.  Below is a quick rundown of all the divisions along with each team's probable status, names involved, measured opinions by author, etc.

*note: all stats and team standings were taken prior to July 20, 2011

NL WEST:

According to the playoff odds report at Baseball Prospectus, the Giants are expected to easily win the division with 93 expected wins while the DBacks (82.2) and Rockies (80.1) fighting it out for a distant second.  Recently, the Giants have won eight out of ten and sit on top of the division with a, somewhat, comfortable 4 1/2 game lead over the DBacks.  The Rockies are still struggling to play .500 ball and are 10 1/2 behind.

Below is a quick breakdown of each team's 2011 payroll and the number of free agents (club options were included) and arbitration eligibles in 2012:

	2011 Payroll	2012 FA's	2012 Arbs.
Giants	$118.2 M	7	12
Dbacks	$56.5 M	4	5
Rockies	$82.3 M	3	4
Dodgers	$119.7 M	12	6
Padres	$45.8 M	4	14

2011 NFL Team Preview: the Raiders of Oakland

In an effort to expand this blog to cover all major American sports, I will periodically turn my attention to the NFL to break down a handful of teams possibly due for a breakout this upcoming season.  With talks between the league and the players association looking optimistic - my goal is to have this done sometime before the end of August.  This first entry will look at the Oakland Raiders.

If all goes to according to plan, this will be the first of a five-part series. Next season, folks.

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Last season the Raiders finished with a record of 8-8 including an impressive 6-0 within their division. Despite playing in the AFC West, this showing wasn’t enough to garner them a playoff spot but there were some positives compared to previous seasons. According to projections published in the previous Football Outsiders Almanac, the Raiders were expected to be no better than a 4 to 5 win team. Standard observation considering the fact that many questions and doubts lingered throughout almost every major position on the team; so, what caused them to perform much better than expected?

Offense

In 2009, the Raiders under first-time head coach Tom Cable turned in an offense that ranked almost last in total DVOA at -22.3%. In his second season, Cable decided to do things a bit differently. After struggling with injuries and under-performance from many key young players, the plan became to simplify this offensive unit with the signing of perpetual quarterback project, Jason Campbell, as well as bringing in first-time offensive coordinator Hue Jackson.

2011 MLB Draft, day 2: rounds 2-30

In my opinion, the top five surprises from yesterday were:

1. Mariners skipping a bat and drafting Danny Hultzen 2nd overall.
2. Josh Bell fails to be drafted in day one (maybe Conor Glassey was right in his tweet regarding Bell's family and their comm. to education).
3. Dbacks going all-in and taking Archie Bradley at number 7 (very bold move and could be a good one).
4. The Mets taking a chance on Brandon Nimmo (only a surprise since everyone figured they were locked in on college pitching).
5. The Royals skipping their favorite bat in Anthony Rendon and taking Bubba Starling.

Other than that, nothing else was too surprising.  Daniel Norris not being drafted could qualify but I've heard that his delivery needs some cleaning and his bonus demands are reported to be high.  I guess I could say that I'm surprised the Yankees at number 51 didn't take a flyer out on him (or on Dillon Howard, for that matter).

Final few hours before the 2011 MLB draft: the Cole v. Rendon debate

According to Mayo, Pirates have finally made their decision regarding their top pick this draft (spoiler alert: Gerrit Cole will be called upon).

Arguments are flooding in against this selection - it's a viable argument but in a draft where the two top positional players have serious questions about health and projection and where a large number of potential aces or solid mid-rotation arms can be scooped up, nothing stands out as "can't miss" in this year's first-player draft.

I'm not going to defend or criticize the Pirates selection since Cole has shown first-round capabilities both out of high school and as a junior in college.  Cole has maintained his development as a potential major league pitcher and now it seems it's up to the Pirates development and health for him to fully succeed.  The former will be something the team can control.  I'm sure, depending on how quickly he signs, Cole could report to High-A Bradenton or he/they could elect to skip this summer and let him debut for about 40 innings in the Arizona Fall League.

Health is another matter for Cole and I haven't come across any reports declaring mechanical issues that would need to be cleaned up.  So, depending on the amount of innings and pitches Cole has thrown for UCLA the past few seasons it may be prudent for them shut him down until spring of 2012 - but nothing, in terms of overall health, is ever guaranteed.

According to a recent Fangraphs article by Dave Cameron, Cole has the highest ERA, HR's allowed, and opp. batting average on the 2011 Bruins team and, along with the shoddy track record of pitchers taken first overall, this could be a formula for disaster.  As further stated by Cameron, Cole's BABIP was high but with the engineering surrounding college bats (even the new and "approved" BBCOR bats) BABIP still has the potential to flucuate based on a.) small sample of innings (114 IP, which Cameron acknowledges) and b.) traditionally, college defenses are subpar and c.) even with the newly sanctioned BBCOR bats, the "sweet spot" has been dramatically reduced along with the removal of its "trampoline/bounce effect" but metal bats still don't break and this can reduce other possibilities of weak contact when a wooden bat breaks or shatters.

Like Quarterbacks being draft first in the NFL (or early in the first round) a lot of risk is always involved and money, esp. with football, regarding all pitchers but I still don't see Anthony Rendon with his questionable size and questionable health as being amunition for an agrument against the selection of Cole as first - even the next best positional prospect, Bubba Starling, has a lot of talent but just as many question marks since he is so raw.

If Rendon was healthy or if he agreed to release his medical report showing exactly what is ailing his shoulder then (based on this med. report being positive) I would argue that selecting the lesser of two evils (amatuer bat over amatuer pitcher) would be wise.

Until then, this draft is loaded with too many question marks on both ends and no clear conclusion regarding the Cole v. Rendon camp can or should be made until next season.

2010 Winter Meetings: Day Three Aftermath

After watching day three unfold at a snail's pace, the Red Sox delivered a minor shocker last night by announcing the signing of Carl Crawford for seven years at $142M. 

The timing and years of this deal are surprising. Many figured that Crawford wouldn't sign or be approached with a deal to his liking until after the meetings and with Jayson Werth signing a few days earlier for the same number years most figured Crawford would be a lock for eight to possibly ten years! 

With the Yankees locked in on acquiring Cliff Lee it seems as though Boston only had to compete with the Los Angeles Angels for Crawford's services and with the playing narrowed quite substantially, it makes sense that the Sox could acquire a player of this age and caliber and still ward off any further risk that could occur if this contract was extended to 2018 and beyond.

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The Crawford signing was good news to the Lee camp since it made the Yankees blink as they've upped their offer to seven years for Cliff Lee.  It's probable that this deal could look like an anchor in a few seasons but on the bright side for us Yankee fans: signing Lee should allow us to keep Jesus Montero since our necessity to trade for a top-end starter seems to have gone down a bit. 

The status of Andy Pettite is still unknown and with the Sox adding another potent left-handed hitter to their mix makes the Yanks need Lee all the more.  Before the Crawford deal, the Yankees were standing firm on six years for Cliff Lee despite mentions of a "mystery" team contacted Lee's agent with a seven year offer.  During yesterday's proceedings, it was reported that GM Brian Cashman received a phone call from Pettite but no decision has been made about his return.  Even with Lee in the fold, Pettite would find room in the Yanks 2011 rotation but with a lot of money tied up to pitchers past '11 (assuming Lee signs), the Yankees will have to make some big decisions with what to do with their three pitching prospects (Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, and Andrew Brackman) since the the team is hoping that all three will be MLB ready by 2012.

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Yesterday, some minor moves were made as the Mariners signed Jack Cust for one season.  The Royals grabbed Jeff Francoeur for a single season with a mutual option; both players figure to share platoon time with their respective teammates.

The Padres picked up a SS by trading for Jason Bartlett and sending over a few interesting relievers back to Tampa Bay in the process.  One of those relievers, Cesar Ramos did struggle a bit with command last season but he is effective in inducing groundballs and could be an upgrade over LOOGY incumbent Randy Choate. 

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Later today, teams will partake in the annual Rule 5 draft; expect the occasional speedy outfielder along with the handful of left-handed bullpen arms to be coveted.  It will, however, be interesting to see if last season's analyst favorite, Aneury Rodriguez from the Rays, gets picked up.