Last season I went great lengths to post (yet another) MLB Amatuer Mock Draft. Looking over those picks I realized I failed to factor in team strategy in regards to the frequency of picks a certain team has in the early rounds to players being established as those able to sign for "slot money" (last season, C Tony Sanchez and RHP Mike Minor come to mind) to those willing to gamble on other options in hopes of a bigger bonus (LHP Tyler Matzek and RHP Jacob Turner, to name a few).
If one wants to correctly pick what each team will do, it's very important to know how each team approaches the amatuer draft: for example, a big market teams like the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees all differ in how they select amateur talent. On one side, the Mets are notorious for placing a small emphasis on the yearly draft while the Yankees have directed a higher share of their revenue in targeting more of the higher profile and expensive talent.
It's also important to understand that smaller market teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates, Oakland Athletics, Colorado Rockies and Texas Rangers view the draft as an important step in their team-building process as a larger percentage of their revenue is placed on the draft.
Some teams like the Dodgers and White Sox can be easily predicted; the Dodgers tend to grab up high upside high school talent (usually pitchers) while the White Sox tend to lean towards the more polished and conservative college route. While other teams with new management like the Blue Jays and Padres can only lead to speculation. Below, I will attempt to quickly summarize each team in the first few rounds and offer their expected strategy along with the player or players I feel are the best fit.
Monday, June 7, 2010
Thursday, May 13, 2010
The Ballad of Kyle Blanks
At the start of this season any fantasy baseball analyst worth their salt declared that Kyle Blanks should safely hit between 20-30 HR's in 2010. Raw power along with being named the starting left fielder during spring training did help; yet, despite these generous predictions, Blanks was able to stay under the radar in most mixed leagues as other young players like Jason Heyward, Austin Jackson, Colby Rasmus, and Travis Snider recieved more attention.
Last season, Blanks displayed a reasonable triple slash of .250/.355/.514 in 172 plate appearances. As you can see by those final two stats, Blanks displayed good plate judgement (in correlation to his batting average) along with above-average power. However, a major problem with his '09 stats were his high K rate of 37.2%. Throughout his minor league career, Blanks was seen as an Adam Dunn style player (hopefully with better fielding skills) and his growing walk rate showed promise and would work to curtail his high strikeout totals.
During those few '09 at bats, luck did play a part in regards to his very high HR/FB rate of 21.3% along with a high BABIP of .325 despite only hitting with a linedrive rate of 12%. Of course, small samples sizes must be damned when establishing order in the baseball world but I was able to successfully target Agent Blanks by landing him during the later rounds on both of my mixed-league fantasy teams.
Unfortunately, Mr. Blanks no longer takes up roster space on either of my teams after scoring a triple slash of .180/.311/.375 in 106 plate appearances as of May 11, 2010. A major problem during these appearances are the 41 strikeouts which comes in at an alarming 46.1%.
Blanks began the season hitting cleanup but has been dropped down in the order to seventh. So far, the Padres are fielding a competitive team and are lone occupiers of first place but how much longer is the team expected to utilize Blanks' high K rate and his, overall, lack of power? I say overall because according to Isolated Power score, Blanks is hitting a reasonable .191 and among his 16 hits - 10 have gone for extra bases.
Yet the sad ballad goes on...
Last season, Blanks displayed a reasonable triple slash of .250/.355/.514 in 172 plate appearances. As you can see by those final two stats, Blanks displayed good plate judgement (in correlation to his batting average) along with above-average power. However, a major problem with his '09 stats were his high K rate of 37.2%. Throughout his minor league career, Blanks was seen as an Adam Dunn style player (hopefully with better fielding skills) and his growing walk rate showed promise and would work to curtail his high strikeout totals.
During those few '09 at bats, luck did play a part in regards to his very high HR/FB rate of 21.3% along with a high BABIP of .325 despite only hitting with a linedrive rate of 12%. Of course, small samples sizes must be damned when establishing order in the baseball world but I was able to successfully target Agent Blanks by landing him during the later rounds on both of my mixed-league fantasy teams.
Unfortunately, Mr. Blanks no longer takes up roster space on either of my teams after scoring a triple slash of .180/.311/.375 in 106 plate appearances as of May 11, 2010. A major problem during these appearances are the 41 strikeouts which comes in at an alarming 46.1%.
Blanks began the season hitting cleanup but has been dropped down in the order to seventh. So far, the Padres are fielding a competitive team and are lone occupiers of first place but how much longer is the team expected to utilize Blanks' high K rate and his, overall, lack of power? I say overall because according to Isolated Power score, Blanks is hitting a reasonable .191 and among his 16 hits - 10 have gone for extra bases.
Yet the sad ballad goes on...
Monday, May 10, 2010
Explain me this...
I may be a bit late to "The Show" but I must say after two months of aggressive advertising and non-stop rotation on the MLB Network. I, being one of the many faithful doctors here at team transparency, decided to call out once and for all what exactly the advertisers for PS3 MLB The Show 10 are saying?
Case in point:
Why does Kevin Butler keep up this ridiculous charade of not knowing who Joe Mauer is? And to whose benefit does this even... benefit? I understand last year's schitck of 09's coverboy Dustin Pedroia being a bit insulted at his avatar's limitation and Butler acting bewildered when called upon but here the joke seems to be a bit forced and flat.
Also, why does Mr. Mauer possess compromising photos of PS3 executive Kevin Butler anyway??? Did they party in ways that would embarrass most men? What others photos does Mr. Mauer have and does he intend to further blackmail this executive? Do they suggest that Mr. Butler is hiding something and the relationship he has with the current AL MVP may be a bit more salacious??
Anyway, it could be funny but ,hopefully, some new and better comedic routine is thought of next season.
Case in point:
Why does Kevin Butler keep up this ridiculous charade of not knowing who Joe Mauer is? And to whose benefit does this even... benefit? I understand last year's schitck of 09's coverboy Dustin Pedroia being a bit insulted at his avatar's limitation and Butler acting bewildered when called upon but here the joke seems to be a bit forced and flat.
Also, why does Mr. Mauer possess compromising photos of PS3 executive Kevin Butler anyway??? Did they party in ways that would embarrass most men? What others photos does Mr. Mauer have and does he intend to further blackmail this executive? Do they suggest that Mr. Butler is hiding something and the relationship he has with the current AL MVP may be a bit more salacious??
Anyway, it could be funny but ,hopefully, some new and better comedic routine is thought of next season.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
A Brief and Transparent Look at American Hooliganism (a crime of sports fit for both the young and old!)
After all the viral buzzing (Ha! pun partially intended) of yesterday's incident in Philadelphia, the question was posed to us readers: has this ever happened before?
To back up a bit, the incident involved a 17 year old alleged Phillie fan, Steve Consalvi, who seemingly called his father for permission to trespass onto Citizen's Bank Park outfield during the 8th inning of yesterday's game. After receiving an ambivalent answer from the old man (in the father's defense, he did later call a friend of his also at the game to try to talk some sense to the boy), Steve jumped onto the field and gave chase to stadium officials only to be tasered to the ground.
If anyone cares, the boy did recover and was medically cleared before being charged with criminal trespass but this incident has brought up the legality and potential safety issues of dealing with unruly fans (as well as a few boo's judging by the fan's reaction to this tasering).
Officially, no one has ever been tasered or shot at on the field of a professional baseball game and this includes the scary 2002 incident in Chicago where a father and his 15 year old son decided to attack a Kansas City Royals first base coach with a switchblade. Drugs and various latent domestic issues were later to blame (although the son, now 23, still counts it as a crowning achievement).
And even this incident of gross-out proportions earlier this season at a Phillies game could have been argued that tasering the said belligerent WASN'T ENOUGH!
However, in the stands and in parking lots, tasering the unruly has become quite common judging by this list. But allow me, for a moment, to settle my transparent gaze on an incident involving a fan at an Oakland A's game last August. During the seventh inning in a game between the Oakland A's and Texas Rangers, stadium officials were alerted to the actions of a drunken fan being profane and beligerent. The fan was identified as 62 year old Thomas Bruso, and based on the video of the incident, one could draw up many conclusions on whether the use of tasering was valid or not. Although it is interesting to watch the reactions of the fans becoming unsettled and angry with the police; conjuring up the age-old mantra that violence begets violence.
*** in a related (or un-related) note, the same Thomas Bruso who was tasered at the Oakland A's game was also involved in a racially charged fight on a public bus earlier this year which was, again, captured on video-phone. Apparently, this loon is a semi-celebrity in the bay area and his "explanation" of why he fought does seem to purge any shred of credence he previously may have had.
Enjoy, or not.
To back up a bit, the incident involved a 17 year old alleged Phillie fan, Steve Consalvi, who seemingly called his father for permission to trespass onto Citizen's Bank Park outfield during the 8th inning of yesterday's game. After receiving an ambivalent answer from the old man (in the father's defense, he did later call a friend of his also at the game to try to talk some sense to the boy), Steve jumped onto the field and gave chase to stadium officials only to be tasered to the ground.
If anyone cares, the boy did recover and was medically cleared before being charged with criminal trespass but this incident has brought up the legality and potential safety issues of dealing with unruly fans (as well as a few boo's judging by the fan's reaction to this tasering).
Officially, no one has ever been tasered or shot at on the field of a professional baseball game and this includes the scary 2002 incident in Chicago where a father and his 15 year old son decided to attack a Kansas City Royals first base coach with a switchblade. Drugs and various latent domestic issues were later to blame (although the son, now 23, still counts it as a crowning achievement).
And even this incident of gross-out proportions earlier this season at a Phillies game could have been argued that tasering the said belligerent WASN'T ENOUGH!
However, in the stands and in parking lots, tasering the unruly has become quite common judging by this list. But allow me, for a moment, to settle my transparent gaze on an incident involving a fan at an Oakland A's game last August. During the seventh inning in a game between the Oakland A's and Texas Rangers, stadium officials were alerted to the actions of a drunken fan being profane and beligerent. The fan was identified as 62 year old Thomas Bruso, and based on the video of the incident, one could draw up many conclusions on whether the use of tasering was valid or not. Although it is interesting to watch the reactions of the fans becoming unsettled and angry with the police; conjuring up the age-old mantra that violence begets violence.
*** in a related (or un-related) note, the same Thomas Bruso who was tasered at the Oakland A's game was also involved in a racially charged fight on a public bus earlier this year which was, again, captured on video-phone. Apparently, this loon is a semi-celebrity in the bay area and his "explanation" of why he fought does seem to purge any shred of credence he previously may have had.
Enjoy, or not.
Monday, April 5, 2010
Opening Day: 2010 MLB Predictions (*including author remarks)
Since predicting the divisional outcomes and winners of MVP's and Cy Young's have become standard among most baseball sites, I've decided to take a stab and offer my own forecasting.
I'll begin with the American League and then follow up with the National League after the jump...
I'll begin with the American League and then follow up with the National League after the jump...
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Three Non-Rookie Pitchers Poised for a Breakout in 2010
Looking at last season's rise of Adam Wainwright, Matt Garza and Ubaldo Jimenez as legitimate top of the rotation starters I decided to look for some common traits these pitchers had and see if I could spot some of next season's possible breakout candidates.
Some could argue that Adam Wainwright's breakout came in '08 after posting an 11-3 record in only 20 starts (his 2008 was cut short by a sprained middle finger on his pitching hand) but significant strides made in his K/9 (going up from 6.2 to 8.2 in one season) along with the consistent command of his above average curveball induced more opposing batters to hit groundballs (rose from 45.9% to a career high 50.7% from '08 to '09) as well as an increase in swings outside the strikezone. Matt Garza was another beneficiary of what can happen when your K/9 goes up almost two clicks (from 6.9 in '08 to 8.5 last season) thereby solidifing his status as a valuable part of Tampa Bay's rotation. Ubaldo Jimenez always had a promising fastball but his high BB rates kept him from being a legitimate MLB option. Wisely, the Rockies knew Jimenez had the arsenal to be a starting pitcher (they could have easily took his 4 seam fastball that can touch 100 mph and threw him in the bullpen hoping he could be an immediate closer). Last season, Jimenez put it all together and the advancements made to his slider and changeup helped to increase his K/9 (from 7.79 to 8.17) and, most importantly, decreased his BB rate (from 4.67 in '08 to 3.5 last season).
Of course other pitchers made considerable leaps from their 2008 to '09 seasons (Zach Grienke, Jon Lester, Josh Johnson and Edwin Jackson come to mind). However, most of these leaps were expected given the status of each of these pitchers going into last season. Below, I have posted three players I expect to breakout after showing some promising traits last season.
Some could argue that Adam Wainwright's breakout came in '08 after posting an 11-3 record in only 20 starts (his 2008 was cut short by a sprained middle finger on his pitching hand) but significant strides made in his K/9 (going up from 6.2 to 8.2 in one season) along with the consistent command of his above average curveball induced more opposing batters to hit groundballs (rose from 45.9% to a career high 50.7% from '08 to '09) as well as an increase in swings outside the strikezone. Matt Garza was another beneficiary of what can happen when your K/9 goes up almost two clicks (from 6.9 in '08 to 8.5 last season) thereby solidifing his status as a valuable part of Tampa Bay's rotation. Ubaldo Jimenez always had a promising fastball but his high BB rates kept him from being a legitimate MLB option. Wisely, the Rockies knew Jimenez had the arsenal to be a starting pitcher (they could have easily took his 4 seam fastball that can touch 100 mph and threw him in the bullpen hoping he could be an immediate closer). Last season, Jimenez put it all together and the advancements made to his slider and changeup helped to increase his K/9 (from 7.79 to 8.17) and, most importantly, decreased his BB rate (from 4.67 in '08 to 3.5 last season).
Of course other pitchers made considerable leaps from their 2008 to '09 seasons (Zach Grienke, Jon Lester, Josh Johnson and Edwin Jackson come to mind). However, most of these leaps were expected given the status of each of these pitchers going into last season. Below, I have posted three players I expect to breakout after showing some promising traits last season.
Monday, March 22, 2010
WAR and the Joe Mauer Extension
Yesterday Joe Mauer signed an 8 year extension worth $184 million dollars. By all acounts with Target Field set to open early next month this was a deal Minnesota had to get done if they wanted to be perceived as dedicated to their fanbase. Breaking down this contract, Mauer will be paid $23 million dollars annually from 2011 till 2018 and will receive full no-trade protection through the duration of this deal.
Now the question is: Will Joe Mauer be worth it?
This is the fourth largest contract in the history of baseball and one that could financially strap a small to medium market team like Minnesota if this deal goes sour. Looking over the past four seasons we can break down Mauer's value in terms of wins he generated over that of an average replacement player. The stat I'm using is called Wins Above Replacement or WAR for short and it seems to be a favorite among the statistically inclined. Over a year ago, Dave Cameron at FanGraphs wrote a series of articles explaining how this stat is measured and how it can improve in the future and it's highly suggested that you read it to get a detailed explanation.
Now the question is: Will Joe Mauer be worth it?
This is the fourth largest contract in the history of baseball and one that could financially strap a small to medium market team like Minnesota if this deal goes sour. Looking over the past four seasons we can break down Mauer's value in terms of wins he generated over that of an average replacement player. The stat I'm using is called Wins Above Replacement or WAR for short and it seems to be a favorite among the statistically inclined. Over a year ago, Dave Cameron at FanGraphs wrote a series of articles explaining how this stat is measured and how it can improve in the future and it's highly suggested that you read it to get a detailed explanation.
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